The day is almost here, the hour draws close, the curtain is opening.......... Call it whatever you want but the Oscars are now less than 48 glorious hours away. The Oscars are practically a holiday for movie lovers, and this year has been as interesting as ever. The Oscars aren't always perfect and I don't always leave happy (are you kidding me Academy you chose Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan?) but the night is usually entertaining regardless. Will anyone bust out Bjork's swan dress in honor of Black Swan? Will Banksy show up and if so what kind of hijinks can we expect from him? How will hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway do? Well myself and Diomedes have seen our movies, done our research, and are getting ready to fill out our official brackets for our Oscar party. So here I will break down each category, and give you who I think will win, who I think should win, and who could upset the favorite. As a side note I should say that I have won the Oscar pool at the party I attend 5 of the last 6 years, including the last 3 years so using me as your main guide is a safe bet. But having said that I always pick some upsets in the eleventh hour.... so read my breakdowns carefully.
Best Actor- This is the single biggest lock of the night. I would be shocked, and I mean absolutely shocked if anyone other than Colin Firth won, plain and simple. And I am perfectly fine with that because Firth's performance was astounding.
Favorite: Colin Firth
Will Win: Colin Firth
Should Win: Colin Firth
Could upset: No one
Best Actress- This race has generally been Annette Bening vs Natalie Portman from the beginning. Natalie Portman is the favorite to win and likely will. However Annette Bening has been in Hollywood for a long time and been previously nominated multiple times without ever winning, could this be the year they decide to give it to her as they assume Portman will have more chances? I could see the Academy giving the career Oscar to Bening.
Favorite: Natalie Portman
Will Win: Natalie Portman
Should Win: Natalie Portman
Could upset: Annette Bening
Best Supporting Actor-This is another of the main races that seems close to being a lock. Christian Bale has been the overwhelming favorite from the beginning. Geoffrey Rush's recent BAFTA win appears to be more blanket love for the King's Speech over a real preview of the Oscars. However the Academy likes to reward its favorite movie in multiple categories, so that could really help Rush.
Favorite: Christian Bale
Will Win: Christian Bale
Should Win: Christian Bale
Could Upset: Geoffrey Rush
Best Supporting Actress-This is the most wide open of the main races. The only constant is that we can count out Jackie Weaver. Melissa Leo was the overwhelming favorite for a long time but her recent missteps with her "for you consideration" ads and the fact Hailee Steinfeld was nominated in the wrong category have really hurt Leo's chances. She is still the favorite but her costar Amy Adams has been gaining ground and it's possible the two will split votes. If this happens I think it could be Hailee Steinfeld's Oscar to lose. She went toe to toe with Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon in showy performances and she was the most memorable of the three. The sleeper here is Helena Bonham-Carter. She won the BAFTA and falls into the category with Geoffrey Rush of possible blanket love for The King's Speech. Her performance was not as showy as the others, but the Academy loves a good historical drama and as I said before, they love to reward their favorite film.
Favorite: Melissa Leo
Will Win: No idea, but lets say Melissa Leo.
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld
Could Upset: Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham-Carter
Best Animated Film-This is another of the complete locks. Toy Story 3 is nominated for Best Picture so how could it not win Best Animated Feature. It was a great film, having said that, I personally liked How To Train Your Dragon better and I wanted that in the Best Picture category.
Favorite: Toy Story 3
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon
Could Upset: Nothing
Art Direction- This category is hard to predict as it doesn't have to go to a Best Picture nominee, in fact it hasn't the last few years. With Alice in Wonderland being an Art Direction spectacle, that is the favorite. The Art Director's Guild however gave its awards to The King's Speech and Inception. At this point I believe I will take Inception to win it all, as I think the Academy may blanket Inception with the technical awards.
Favorite: Alice in Wonderland
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Alice in Wonderland, King's Speech
Cinematography- This will be an interesting award to watch, it will likely come down to three films: Black Swan, Inception, and True Grit. The cinematographer of True Grit, Roger Deakins, has been nominated 9 times without a win, and the cinematography in True Grit is spectacular. However the cinematographers for Inception and Black Swan, Wally Pfister and Matthew Libatique respectively, are both big names in their craft and did an amazing job. I think Deakins gets his first Oscar however.
Favorite: Inception
Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Inception
Documentary Feature- The documentary choices were unique this year. Pre-nominations Waiting for Superman was the favorite. However it didn't even garner a nomination. Exit through the Gift Shop is an interesting documentary that goes from street art to selling out. My favorite was Restrepo, a hard and harrowing look into the war in Afghanistan from the soldiers perspective. However I think the winner may be Inside Job, based mainly off the Academy giving the award to a film that is about politics and corruption in today's economy.
Favorite: Exit through the Gift Shop
Will Win: Inside Job
Should Win: Restrepo
Could Upset: Exit through the Gift Shop, Restrepo
Documentary Short Subject- Generally many of these categories can be predicted by the subject, but this year many are about harrowing stories. Killing in the Name is about a Muslim who questions how extremists can be who they are after his family is killed by a suicide bomber. Strangers No More is about children attempting to learn in a war torn country, Sun Come Up is about an island of people who are forced to leave when the water rises dangerously high. Those three seem to be the favorites but this category is wide open. I think Killing in the Name may take the award.
Favorite: Strangers No More
Will Win: Killing in the Name
Should Win: Killing in the Name
Could Upset: Sun Come Up, Strangers No More
Editing- This award to me is wrong from the start. How is Inception not nominated after the navigation between 4 dream worlds and the real world? To me Inception should win and should be nominated, but I suppose I have to let that go. The editors guild chose The Social Network for its great conversational editing and editing between two court cases and the story. Black Swan's ballet scenes were greatly transitioned to the scenes of insanity, 127 Hours did unique things with editing in a story that lacks the need for editing, and as talked about above, the Academy could just blanket award Kings Speech. I will side with the editors guild on this one.
Favorite: Social Network
Will Win: Social Network
Should Win: Inception, but since its not an option, Social Network.
Could Upset: 127 Hours, Black Swan, King's Speech
Foreign Language Film- This category continues to stifle me as each year I choose whichever movie has nominations in other categories, and each year I am wrong. So that would say this year Biutiful is not going to win despite its Best Actor nomination. Dogtooth was a terrible film, absolutely terrible, so I would hope that has no chance. I think based off subject matter, Incendies could go far.
Favorite: Biutiful
Will Win: Incendies
Should Win: Incendies
Could Upset: Biutiful
Original Score- Score is one of my favorite parts of movies, so this award is huge to me. Inception, Social Network, and Shutter Island had my favorite scores of the year, but Shutter Island was not nominated. Alexandre Desplat's 4th nomination in five years makes him the favorite for Kings Speech. Social Network won the Golden Globe, 127 Hours composer A.R. Rahman won recently for Slumdog Millionaire, Hans Zimmer is the absolute best in the business and was completely on his game in Inception, and I have heard many recent whispers that the Academy quietly loves How to Train your Dragon's terrific score. So this award is wide open.... While King's Speech is the favorite, I think it gets upset.
Favorite: The King's Speech
Will Win: Social Network
Should Win: Social Network, Inception
Could Upset: Every other film nominated.
Song- This category is wide open as well. Randy Newman is always a contender and his song for Toy Story 3 is terrific. Country Strong has the strongest outside of the movies song, and 127 Hours had the most moving song in regards to the film. I would think Newman takes it.
Favorite: Toy Story 3
Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: 127 Hours
Could Upset: 127 Hours, Country Strong
Short Film Animated- Madagascar and Let's Pollute have the strongest political messages, however this award sometimes goes to the best put together film, and for me, that's Day & Night. It played before Toy Story 3 and is from Pixar, so it has a huge advantage.
Favorite: Day & Night
Will Win: Day & Night
Should Win: Day & Night
Could Upset: Madagascar
Short Film Live Action- God of Love and The Crush were the most watchable of the films. Wish 143 and Na Wewe however tackled the tougher source material.
Favorite: Wish 143
Will Win: Na Wewe
Should Win: God of Love
Could Upset: In this category, anything.
Makeup- Barney's Version and The Way Back were thought to be contenders for other awards but this is the only nomination for both. And Wolfman was critically panned. However Wolfman had the most makeup and was done by Rick Baker, and those are two big things the Academy likes. Barney's Version though had some amazing aging makeup and to me the makeup in Wolfman looked campy.
Favorite: Wolfman
Will Win: Wolfman
Should Win: Barney's Version
Could Upset: Barney's Version
Sound Editing- Sound editing is the award for the straight sound effects, so the big budget high explosion Michael Bay type movie usually wins. Unstoppable and Tron: Legacy both had great sound effects, but this should no doubt go to Inception. Gun fire, explosions, water, vehicle crashes, train crashes...Inception had everything.
Favorite: Inception
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Tron: Legacy, Toy Story 3
Sound Mixing- Sound Mixing is the blending of all the sounds. It blends the dialogue with the effects and the music. Blockbusters and musicals usually win this award. Salt has its only nomination here, so that really isn't a contender. And many times the films that won one sound award, won both. I think Inception is the best in this category as well, however I could see the dialogue heavy films like The King's Speech and Social Network sneaking in here. In fact, Social Network has been talked about heavily in this category due to its heavy talking in many different locations.
Favorite: Social Network
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: King's Speech, Social Network
Visual Effects- There are some great visual effects movies here like Alice In Wonderland and Iron Man 2 here, but this should be Inception's to lose.
Favorite: Inception
Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Alice in Wonderland
Costume Design- The Tempest and I am Love have their only nominations here, and the costumes were great in both, but its likely the Academy will go with a film nominated in other categories. True Grit had typical Western regalia but didn't shine. So my guess is this award comes down to the two movies that were honored by the Costume Designers Guild, King's Speech and Alice in Wonderland. The costumes in Alice in Wonderland were no doubt better, but the Academy still may honor King's Speech for its period regal costumes.
Favorite: King's Speech
Will Win: Alice in Wonderland
Should Win: Alice in Wonderland
Could Upset: King's Speech, The Tempest
Writing (Original) - This award comes down to three films, Inception which won the Writers Guild Award, King's Speech which is the overwhelming favorite for Best Picture, and the Best Picture winner always also wins Best Screenplay. Also The Kids Are Alights extremely overrated script is still favored by many critics.
Favorite: King's Speech
Will Win: King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Inception, The Kids are Alright
Writing (Adapted) - Social Network is heavily favored here. All 4 other nominated films were also nominated for Best Picture, but I highly doubt anything upsets it.
Favorite: Social Network
Will Win: Social Network
Should Win: Social Network
Could Upset:................not much.
Best Director - Not to keep beating the drum, but Christopher Nolan's exclusion in this race is a travesty. Nolan had more to do and did more with it than David O'Russell and Tom Hooper........in my opinion. However, Tom Hooper is the favorite in this category for King's Speech. David Fincher won the Golden Globe and was the favorite for a long time but recently the Director' Guild and BAFTA's anointed Hooper the man to beat. I still think we are in for an upset.
Favorite: Tom Hooper
Will Win: David Fincher
Should Win: Christopher Nol.........sorry. David Fincher
Could Upset: Tom Hooper
Best Picture - This race has 10 nominees for the second straight year, but has a clear favorite. The King's Speech unseated The Social Network as the favorite about a month ago and has not looked back. Anything else winning besides the King's Speech would be a huge upset. I felt 9 of the 10 nominated films were great including The King's Speech, however it ranks towards the bottom of the 10 for me, above The Kids are Alright and Toy Story 3, but behind everything else. Inception was the film this year that I felt was the best by far, followed by True Grit, The Social Network, Black Swan, and Winter's Bone. 127 Hours and The Fighter were also ahead of The King's Speech for me. However having said that I am not the Academy and the Academy is not listening to me.
Favorite: The King's Speech
Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Inception
Could Upset: Social Network has the only chance of unseating the King.
-Maximus
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