In Part 1 of our 2014 Oscar predictions, we broke down what movies we thought could be contenders. In this post, we'll make the actual predictions in the eight major categories. Let us know what you think in the comments section. My predicted winner will be marked with an *.
Original Screenplay
Gravity*: The film should be all dialogue, and if the movie is actually good, it will be a great achievement in screenwriting.
The Grand Budapest Hotel: Wes Anderson is popular with the Academy.
Serena: Another film that seems like it will be bursting with intelligent and scathing dialogue based on the subject matter.
Inside Llewyn Davis: The Coen Brothers do very well in this category.
12 Years a Slave: You'll see a lot of love for this film in this article, and while not much has been released about it, I think director Steve McQueen and star Michael Fassbender have to get noticed when they work together at some point soon.
Screenplay is a tough category considering some more unique and Indie films get recognized here. I do like the above five, however could see Woody Allen sneaking in here with Blue Jasmine.
Adapted Screenplay
The Wolf of Wall Street*: I think this will be a contender for all the major awards.
August Osage County: See "The Wolf of Wall Street".
Foxcatcher: Another film that seems to be a prime candidate for making a good run. Director Bennett Miller does well with somewhat slower material.
The Fifth Estate: The screenplay will be the strongest part of this film if it is successful.
Saving Mr. Banks: I think this film will be the one that oozes Hollywood like the last few Best Picture winners, Argo and The Artist.
I think Oldboy could be a contender here if it gets the support I think it will, but I cannot in good conscious remove any of the above five films.
Best Supporting Actress
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County: She has been gone for a while, and this is a great chance, the Academy loves comebacks.
Cate Blanchett-The Monuments Men: Blanchett has a few films this year that could put her in this category for a great body of work.
Vanessa Redgrave-The Butler: This film is an actor's dream with no less than six men and four women playing notable historical figures. Some at least will be considered in the supporting categories.
Elizabeth Olsen*-Oldboy: Spike Lee has also been out of the game for a while, and I think this film could bring him back into the fold. Olsen has the best chance to snag an acting nomination.
Amy Adams-Untitled David O'Russell scam film: Amy Adams gets nominated a lot, and this should be no exception.
The acting categories are going to be loaded this year. There could be multiple nominees from one film or the same nominee from multiple films.
Best Supporting Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch-Twelve Years a Slave: Cumberbatch could be nominated for Actor or Supporting Actor for about 4 movies this year. This is a toss up.
Bill Murray-The Monuments Men: A film with about 5 possibilities in this category. I'll go Murray over Craig, Dujardin, and Damon.
Colin Farrell*-Saving Mr. Banks: I am hearing a lot of good things about this performance. My only concern is that Emma Thompson will be the star in this film, and Hanks will actually be the main supporting actor, not the lead actor, which would hurt Farrell's chances.
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher: I think Foxcatcher could do very well this year.
Alan Rickman-The Butler: Similar to what I wrote about the supporting actress race for this film. Pick an actor and hope you are right. Alan Rickman plays Ronald Reagan here.
Again, I am really out on a limb here, especially guessing which film Cumberbatch is recognized for and who is recognized from The Butler. Actors like Brad Pitt, Christian Bale, Michael Fassbender, and Jean Dujardin are in multiple films this year and could all get some nominations.
Best Actress
Naomi Watts-Diana: I doubt the film gets much support overall, but Watts is amazing and appreciated by her peers each year.
Nicole Kidman-Grace of Monaco: I think this is a contender for overrated performance of the year as Kidman has been overacting for about six years, but with Weinstein backing her....
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County: A no brainer.
Sandra Bullock*-Gravity: You are either all in or all out on this film based on the premise, I am all in.
Jennifer Lawrence-Serena: I wonder if there will be JLaw fatigue by this time next year though... Plus she may split votes with her other Bradley Cooper film this year. But Serena feels like just the perfect film for her.
This is a loaded category. I mean a complete powerhouse of some of the best women in the business. I feel very confident in these five.
Best Actor
Idris Elba-Mandela: Every year needs a bio performance. Idris Elba is one of my favorite actors, and I am hoping this really puts him on the map. Plus it has Weinstein's backing.
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher: A real wild card I know, but this film is going to really push Carell, there won't be any comedy here.
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street: DiCaprio is usually overlooked by the Academy, and its hard to not give Clooney any acting nominations this year, but I am going for it.
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips: You would think him playing Walt Disney would be his nomination, but I am just not positive that performance will be in the lead category.
Benedict Cumberbatch*-The Fifth Estate: Yes, I am predicting the rare Actor/Supporting Actor dual nominations for Cumberbatch. With his four Oscar possible films this year plus Star Trek into Darkness and The Hobbit Part 2, we should all know Cumberbatch soon.
I originally had Clooney in here over DiCaprio. Both probably get in over Elba, but sometimes you have to follow your heart and/or gut. I am also guess Captain Phillips is Hanks' film in this category despite Saving Mr. Banks getting more nominations. Carell is the real question mark. Also, some will be surprised I have Cumberbatch winning with all these men nominated, but I think it is his time.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese-The Wolf of Wall Street: The Academy loves Scorsese, and this film is right in it's wheelhouse.
George Clooney-The Monuments Men: I have him getting shut out in his two acting performances, but getting a directing nomination here.
Alfonso Cuaron*- Gravity: Again, all in on this film. If it works out, it will be quite the achievement all around.
Bennett Miller-Foxcatcher: Miller does well with quiet films, and I think this film will really get noticed.
Spike Lee-Oldboy: A bit of a wild card here with no screenplay nomination, but Lee hasn't done much lately and I think he is due.
I removed Steve McQueen here to put in Lee, both of their films could go away without a whimper, but I am thinking both make an impact. Suzanne Biers for Serena, John Wells for August: Osage County, and John Lee Hancock for Saving Mr. Banks area all possibilities here as well.
Best Picture
The Wolf of Wall Street: A tale of an investment banker gone wrong with an all star cast and one of the greatest living directors? Of course.
The Monuments Men: This film could end up not working, the premise is slightly out there. But with Clooney behind the camera and in front of it, joined by the entire A list, I think it will be enjoyed by many.
Foxcatcher: This is one of the films that really makes me nervous predicting this year, but I think its going to do well.
Twelve Years a Slave: This one could also fade away completely, but I think it does well.
Oldboy: See what I said about Spike Lee. If this film is half as good as the Chinese original, it will be here.
August: Osage County: May just be an acting juggernaut, but should sneak in here with Weinstein's backing.
Saving Mr. Banks: See what I wrote in screenplay, Hollywood loves Hollywood, and everyone loves Hanks and Walt Disney.
Serena: The right material for an Oscar film, should be around this time next year.
Gravity*: I am all in. And really, really excited for this film.
I chose nine nominees when ten easily could be an option with such a loaded year. Who knows, the up to ten rule might even get changed this year anyway.
I left many films without a major nomination, including The Great Gatsby, Fruitvale, Dallas Buyer's Club, Labor Day, The Counselor, Out of the Furnace, and Don Jon's Addiction. It was quite hard to make some decisions here, but that is a great sign for the year to come. Hopefully the Academy handles such a loaded year well.
-Maximus
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