Where We Stand (Supporting Performances)

The supporting races are in two very different positions, Best Supporting Actor seems to be pretty wide open, while Best Supporting Actress is about locked in. We'll start with the obvious one.

We won't spend a lot of time on Best Supporting Actress because like Best Actor, it is seemingly in the bag. Anne Hathaway has won all the major precursor awards for Les Miserables, and there is no reason to think this Academy darling won't win come Oscar night. While she has not won before, she has hosted previously and done a musical number the year Hugh Jackman hosted. Sally Field is the only other contender, and she could still surprise since the Academy does often reward older performers, but it is unlikely. Jacki Weaver and Helen Hunt's nominations were their victories, and while Amy Adams seemed like she had a good shot in the early fall, her chances have faded as well. Anne Hathaway became the favorite from the moment her "I Dreamed a Dream" anchored the first trailer for Les Mis.

Best Supporting Actor is a little bit tougher. Leonardo DiCaprio was expected to be a major contender throughout the summer and the fall for his against type performance in Django Unchained, but he was snubbed in favor of his costar Christoph Waltz. The other nominees, Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln, Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master, Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin for Argo, all could sneak away with this one, as could Waltz. Currently I would put Tommy Lee Jones as the favorite. He won the SAG award and a few other minor awards, and Lincoln is widely praised for its acting. Everyone seems to love De Niro and I think many are very happy to see him make a return to good movies. Alan Arkin won here a few years ago, and Argo is gaining wide support since its Best Director snub, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is an Academy favorite as well, plus it may be the Master's only chance for an award. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for Django, and also won a few years ago for Inglorious Basterds. So basically this award is wide open. Currently I would put Lee Jones at a 50/50 shot to win, Arkin at a 20% chance, De Niro, Waltz, and Hoffman at 10% each. Keep an eye on this award, this may change quite a bit in the next two weeks.

-Maximus