Today is the big day, you can see our Oscar predictions in our last two posts. But now the question is what should you expect tonight? What should we watch for? Here is the Movie Ninja's Guide to the Oscars.
1. The Red Carpet-who cares right? I personally could care less who is wearing who. Having said that, there is always some fun to be had. Jennifer Lawrence has been funny and brutally honest, and with her once locked in award slipping away, will she be able to hold back her brutal honesty? In addition there are many fun personalities nominated this year, Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, and Bradley Cooper just to name a few.
2. Seth McFarlane-Some don't appreciate his brand of humor, but there is no argument he is one of the smartest people in Hollywood. Watch one episode of Family Guy and you'll see at least 5 references to pop culture, and deep pop culture at that. He also has skewered everyone in Hollywood, so will he go easy on the insults or is he going to be in full fledged mean mode? It will be interesting to see how his peers respond to his humor, and don't forget he is a classically trained singer and astounding pianist.
3. The outcome- Check our predictions, but this is one of the most random years I can remember. Last year you knew The Artist and Hugo would win most awards, but this year, who knows? Lincoln was the most nominated film and the favorite, but Argo has won all the precursors, and what about Life of Pi, Silver Lining's Playbook, and Amour? All 3 are also loved by the Academy, but how much support do they have? Will Life of Pi take all the technical s? I could see this year going chalk, Argo/Spielberg/Day-Lewis/Lawrence/Hathaway and Pi for all the techs, but I could also see me being very surprised tomorrow. Lee for Director? Lincoln or Silver Lining's for Picture? Does Lincoln win a lot of those technical awards we have given to Pi? Who knows what will happen?
4. The Supporting Actor Award- The most unpredictable of the major awards in the ten years I have been covering the Oscars. There is nothing that would surprise me here, although I hope its Christoph Waltz, but Tommy Lee Jones is also deserving. So does the favorite industry veteran (Jones) who has shown a very cranky and unlikable side win? Does the lovable, in the wrong category guy (Waltz) win? Does the long time golden boy with his first good movie in a decade (De Niro) win for a one scene performance? What about the guy with the small part but the most support for his film (Arkin)? Or the guy who brings it every time and is always great (Hoffman)? No one knows. I picked Jones, but am torn on this award. In past years this award was one of the first given, but not last year. If they do give this award early, it may indicate whats to come. If Arkin wins, the Argo support is real. If De Niro wins, watch out for Lawrence for Actress and SLP for screenplay, director, and even picture. If Lee Jones takes it, it makes Day-Lewis' victory all the more certain, and maybe shows the strong bias towards Lincoln. Waltz winning doesn't indicate much since Django is a long shot in anything else but screenplay.
5. The Ending- Apparently McFarlane and Kristin Chenowith are going to do a big, memorable, musical number to end the show. Usually the show ends quickly after Best Picture is announced, so why the change? And why Chenowith? She hasn't done anything notable since Pushing Daisies ended 5 years ago, and even then she wasn't exactly notable.
6. The Backlash- Look back at our Best Picture winners the last few years? Crash gets destroyed whenever it is brought up, The Departed is considered a lifetime achievement award for Scorsese and is never talked about as being great on its own. The Artist is considered light and Hollywood patting itself on the back. The King's Speech now is looked at as undeserving since The Social Network was superior. So if Argo wins, there will be backlash, but how much? If Lincoln or Life of Pi win, what will the evident backlash be? You know its coming, the question is it backlash that the masses agree with (Crash) or something people brush off (The Departed).
Whatever happens, enjoy the ride tonight. Its the biggest night of the year for the movie industry. Check back this week for my recap, and then soon after for my annual way too far in advance 2014 Oscar preview.
-Maximus
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