Best Picture
Amour
Argo
Beasts of The Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Argo
Argo has all the momentum, but the Academy was also the only awards group to not nominate it for Best Director, so maybe we are in for an upset? If we are, I think it goes to Lincoln or SLP, with Amour having an outside chance as well. SLP has the acting branches vote with four nominations, but Lincoln has the most overall support. My confidence from 1-9 for these goes Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables, Django Unchained.
Best Director
Lincoln: Steven Spielberg
Amour: Michael Haneke
Beasts of the Southern Wild: Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi: Ang Lee
Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell
Will Win: Lincoln
Could Win: Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Without nominations for Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, or Quentin Tarantino, my vote goes to Spielberg.
Haneke and Zeitlin are the only ones I have ruled out. I could see this going any other way. I feel like Spielberg was a sure thing when Bigelow and Affleck were left out, but Lee is loved among his peers, and Life of Pi is considered to be a monumental directing achievement.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln
Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix: The Master
Denzel Washington: Flight
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Could Win: No one else.
Dark Horse: Not a single one.
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
This race was over when Daniel Day-Lewis signed his contract. Any other year I could see Jackman, Phoenix, and Cooper all presenting a challenge, but not this year.
Best Actress
Naomi Watts: The Impossible
Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Emmanuelle Riva: Amour
Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva
Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
This is a legitimate three horse race. Chastain seems to have slipped a bit as Riva rose, but Riva currently has all the momentum. Question is if its enough to beat out Lawrence? I think all those who submitted their ballots before about a week ago voted Lawrence, in the last week I think people may have gravitated towards Riva, but I think too little too late.
Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro: Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin: Argo
Phillip Seymour Hoffman: The Master
Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln
Will Win: Complete toss up, but I'll say Christoph Waltz
Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro
Dark Horse: Alan Arkin or Phillip Seymour Hoffman
I have never been so torn on a major category before. All five have won Oscars before, and all five are veterans. I think I would only be slightly surprised if Arkin or Hoffman won, however any of the other 3 are not a surprise at all. *Update, since this post went up, I am starting to lean towards Tommy Lee Jones. I am really torn right now.
Best Supporting Actress
Jacki Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook
Amy Adams: The Master
Sally Field: Lincoln
Helen Hunt: The Sessions
Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables
Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Could Win: Sally Field
Dark Horse: Amy Adams
Should Win: Anne Hathaway
Hathaway has dominated all the early awards, and I think it continues. It would be a big surprise if anyone else won. I could see the Academy fawning over the veteran though and giving an honorary award to Field, even though it was a terribly over acted performance.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Lincoln
A tough category between these three films. Argo won the scripter and the WGA award, but I still think the Academy wants to assure Lincoln of at least one big award.
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Django Unchained
Could Win: Amour
Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty, or Django Unchained.
Django and ZDT have split most early awards, with ZDT taking the WGA, and Django the Globe. Amour has a lot more support with the Academy though than any other awards body, so I think it could sneak in.
Best Animated Film
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Will Win: Brave
Could Win: Wreck-it Ralph
Dark Horse: ParaNorman
Should Win: N/A
I haven't actually seen the nominees in this category this year, but my gut says Wreck-It Ralph has the most support after winning the Annie this year. However the Academy loves Pixar, and I think anyone who hasn't seen all the nominees and anyone who is not a video game fan may vote Brave. *Vote changed to Brave over Wreck-It Ralph.
Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Skyfall
Dark Horse: Lincoln
Should Win: Skyfall
Roger Deakins work on Skyfall was fantastic, but he has been nominated 10 times without a win. Many times this award goes to a film with wide spread support, so in this case it would be Lincoln or Pi. I am starting to think Pi will take many technical awards. * Pick changed to Life of Pi.
Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Will Win: Anna Karenina
Could Win: Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Mirror Mirror
Should Win: Snow White and the Huntsman
Anna Karenina and Mirror Mirror won the Costume Designers Guild awards, and this category has gone to films without many other nominations in the past, so it wouldn't be a shock to see Karenina or Mirror win. I think Les Miserables may get support in technical awards that Pi isn't nominated for so it doesn't go home empty handed.
Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Argo
Could Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
This award like cinematography also goes to a film with widespread support usually. Amazingly enough, Argo could win Best Picture without any other awards, so I think the Academy may give this one to it as well. This category is pretty wide open though.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: The Hobbit
Dark Horse: Hitchcock
Should Win: The Hobbit
This award many times goes to the film that used makeup to transform a person into a historical figure than a fantasy film, however the makeup in Hitchcock certainly doesn't look award worthy to me. I think fantasy vs biographical will split and win Les Mis the award.
Music (Original Score)
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Lincoln
Dark Horse: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall
All the nominees but Karenina are real possibilities here. Lincoln, Skyfall, and Argo are composed by industry veterans. I am taking a flyer thinking that Life of Pi's unique and powerful score will win it the award.
Music (Original Song)
"Before My Time" Chasing Ice
"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" Ted
"Pi's Lullaby" Life of Pi
"Skyfall" Skyfall
"Suddenly" Les Miserables
Will Win: Skyfall
Could Win: Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Pi's Lullaby
Should Win: Skyfall
Skyfall was a huge hit and everyone loves Adele. In addition its fitting for the first Bond song to win the Award is on Bond's 50th anniversary.
Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Will Win: Lincoln
Could Win: Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Les Miserables
Should Win: Lincoln
Anna Karenina doesn't have much support overall, and Life of Pi and The Hobbit were too CGI laden for me to reward their production design. So I'll go Lincoln here, although I admit its a guess and its more likely that Life of Pi sweeps all the technical awards.
Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Dark Horse: Skyfall
Should Win: Skyfall
I compare editing to basic sound effects, and all the animal and storm effects in Life of Pi I think will put it over the top, plus again I think Pi takes most of the technical categories. *Pick changed to Pi.
Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Will Win: Les Miserables
Could Win: Skyfall
Dark Horse: Life of Pi
Should Win: Les Miserables
I am going Les Mis since much was made of them doing live singing. But again it lacked traditional "sound effects" so we could see Skyfall win. Life of Pi has a chance since at any give time you had water effects, animal sounds, and human voice.
Visual Effects
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Will Win: Life of Pi
Could Win: The Avengers
Dark Horse: Snow White
Should Win: The Avengers
Life of Pi is the only nominee here that the Academy showed much favor to. So that is my guess.
Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Could Win: How to Survive a Plague
Dark Horse: 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers
Should Win: The Invisible War
Plague, Cameras, War, and Gatekeepers were all depressing. Sugar Man at least was light hearted. However I have a feeling the voters will choose a heavy subject like Aids or rape instead of a light hearted one.
Documentary Short
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Open Heart
Redemption
Will Win: Inocente
Could Win: Redemption
Dark Horse: Open Heart
Should Win: Inocente
Tough call as usual in these categories. I say pick the film you liked the most. Damn what experts predict as it never goes that way.
Foreign Language Film
Amour
Kon-Tiki
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch
Will Win: Amour
Could Win: War Witch
Dark Horse: Kon-Tiki
Should Win: Kon-Tiki
Amour received nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay, none of these others did. I think its pretty easy to guess which way the Academy is leaning.
Short Film (Animated)
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
Paperman
Will Win: Paperman
Could Win: Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare
Dark Horse: Fresh Guacamole
Should Win: Paperman
Again, choose your favorite as there is no rhyme or reason to the winner. Paperman was fantastic.
Short Film (Live Action)
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Will Win: Curfew
Could Win: Death of a Shadow
Dark Horse: Asad
Should Win: Asad
I think this is close, I personally favored Asad.
So here are my predictions. Check back Sunday Morning as I may make changes up until then. In some cases I may make changes on my personal ballot right up until Oscar time, especially in the Supporting Actor category. Check back for Diomedes' pick before the big show, and then for my recap after the ceremony.
-Maximus
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