Where We Stand (Best Picture and Best Director). *Updated

It seemed like in early September, The Master and Moonrise Kingdom were the early favorites to fight for Best Picture. Dark Knight Rises was thought to have a shot, but you felt like people were underwhelmed by it. Two movies that last year at this time (The Wettest County and Cogans Trade) got title changes and were released with little to no fanfare (Lawless and Killing Them Softly). Two movies pundits expected great things from (World War Z and The Great Gatsby) were pushed back to next year, and a small indie movie (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was the only thing from Summer that seemed to still have a shot. Than Argo came out, and changed the landscape, it was the instant favorite. It stayed the favorite through October and November, and seemed unstoppable. But every year we see this, a movie comes out, and is a powerhouse, just to be unseated by something that is the craze right when the nominations are due. Think The Social Network being unseated by The Kings Speech or The Hurt Locker coming from nowhere to unseat Avatar. And this year was no different, you saw Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Flight all seemed to chip away at Argo's thunder. And while Argo maintained enough momentum to stay in the race, many thought it would simply fade like so many other movies. We also saw Skyfall become a phenomenon, The Hobbit underwhelm, and a little French movie about dementia start to climb. We saw Les Miserables and Django Unchained open the same weekend, while one that was considered a real BP contender (Les Mis) underwhelmed just enough to not make it a serious threat to win, Django  however seemed to gain some serious momentum. The Golden Globe nominations came out, and as usual, they went with the obvious choices, ignoring smaller films like Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Amour. It felt like we knew what we were getting come Academy Award nomination time, Lincoln, Argo, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, and Life of Pi seemed like they would be the choices. With the small chance a blockbuster like Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, or Looper sneaking in. Then came the Academy Award nominations, and all those films minus the blockbuster received a best picture nomination, in addition, we did see the support for the small films like Beasts and Amour, both also receiving a BP nomination. However, things got funny when the Best Director nominations were announced, with sure things Spielberg and Li for Lincoln and Pi respectively, being the only expected nominees. David O'Russell received a BD nomination for a light hearted romantic comedy, and the directors of Beasts and Amour also received nominations, showing just how much support there was for those two films. However, Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, and Ben Affleck were all left out, and basically, that was the death stoke for the BP chances of Django, ZDT, Les Mis, and Argo. Lincoln and Life of Pi rocketed to 1st and 2nd place, followed by Silver Linings, Amour, and Beasts. Only 4 times in the almost 100 year history of the awards has a film won BP without a BD nomination, and the last time was in the seventies. Lately even films considered not to be directing achievements like The Kings Speech and The Artist were awarded BD because of their overall support. It was than that movie experts and prognosticators and bloggers felt these slighted films had no chance at best picture. But then on a Saturday night in January, The Critics Choice awards handed Best Director and Best Picture to Argo, not a huge shock, as the Critics choice Awards often don't align with the Academy. Even Affleck poked fun at it when accepting his award. The next night were the Golden Globes, and the Comedy side saw Les Mis and Silver Linings continue their runs, the screenplay and supporting actor award went to Django, and then came time for the Best Director and Picture of a drama awards. Director, went to a genuinely shocked Ben Affleck. Picture a few minutes later, allowed Argo to be the big winner. The next day people laughed and discussed the disconnect between the Hollywood Foreign Press (Golden Globes voting body) and the Academy, discussing how Lincoln clearly is still the favorite. Django Unchained lost the slight momentum it had gained, Les Mis gained more backlash, and most figured Amour and Beast's nominations were their awards. Things seemed to become clearer, but then a few weeks later, the Producers guild gave their highest honor to Argo as well. The next night, SAG also awarded Argo, and even before its snub for director at the Oscars, SAG was not expected to honor Argo. It was after this, with only two major awards remaining (Oscars and DGA) that Argo is the favorite again. So the question, is how does this happen? How does a film not make the best five directing achievements but possibly win best picture? Keep reading for my theories.

Unlike the Golden Globes, The Academy is broken into branches. Actors vote for actors, Directors for directors, writers for screenplay, editors for editors, designers for costumes, and so on. However everyone from visual effects artists to composers to actors votes for Best Picture. Clearly Argo had enough support to get a Picture nomination, but not enough for directing. So here are the possibilities: 1) The Directors didn't care for the movie, but all other branches did. Argo could still easily win Best Picture in this scenario. 2) The Directors all bought into the thought that ZDT and Argo were shoe ins for a Director nomination, so they voted for other films just so they could get some votes and be appreciated, however with many subscribing to this, many people's actual favorites ZDT and Argo got accidentally left out. Argo could still win BP in this scenario as well. 3) People really liked the film, but still really do not like Ben Affleck, hence why he received no directing nomination, and wasn't ever even considered for Acting. Argo likely loses Picture in this scenario. 

Whatever the theory is, we'll never really know what happened. But I think what the SAG award signifies, is that the Best Director snub is not something most voting members are happy about, and there is a good chance now people are voting for it out of spite, this is the "Ar-go F yourself" theory. If this is correct, then Argo likely wins big on Oscar night. I believe this theory because how can a film win the SAG award over other nominated films who had more individual performances nominated? Argo had just one SAG individual nomination for Alan Arkin, Silver Linings Playbook had 4 (De Niro, Weaver, Cooper, Lawrence) and won 1. Les Mis had 2 (Hathaway, Jackman) and won 1. Lincoln had 3 (Lee Jones, Day Lewis, and Field) and won 2. So how could the overall cast be that much better if individual performances were that much worse (worse is a strong word, how about "less amazing")? This is why I think voters are now rallying behind Argo, a show of support for what they feel is the best film and a film they feel was snubbed for Best Director. 

So how will it all end? I still think Lincoln is in the thick of it, it was given the most overall nominations meaning it has great support across most categories, and the Academy is still much less progressive, and usually goes the route they indicate they are going early. Either way it does seem to be a two horse race now. The smart money is still the Academy going Lincoln, but if the DGA goes Argo tonight, then I think we'll have a new favorite in the club house. 

As for Director, the film that usually wins Best Picture wins Best Director. If Lincoln wins Picture, we can assume Spielberg takes home Director as well. But if Argo continues its run and wins Picture, does Spielberg still win Director? I think so. I feel Beasts and Amour are not real contenders in this category, as stated before, the nomination was their award. Life of Pi may be the most amazing directing achievement, but again overall support is muted. David O'Russell may be the biggest threat to Spielberg, but I still think the chances of that happening are slim. 

-Maximus