We have discussed where the Best Picture and Director awards stand and how we got there, now lets turn our attention to the leading acting performances.
Starting with Actor, this one was decided months ago. Daniel Day-Lewis will win this award. This has not and will not change. There was a time when Hugh Jackman seemed to have a shot, but then Lincoln came out. Not much more to cover here.
Best Actress is closer. While you can rule out three of the nominees, it's about 50/50 between the other two. Jennifer Lawrence of The Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain of Zero Dark Thirty are options 1 and 1a. Both won Golden Globes, however Lawrence surged forward with a SAG win. Both were nominated last year, and both movies have wide support. As the intensely focused CIA operative in Zero Dark Thirty, Chastain's performance is a dramatic masterpiece, however there is a certain lack of flashiness, and the Academy loves flashiness. Lawrence's performance has that flashiness, she was able to do comedy, wit, and heavy drama. The performance seemed to strain a bit when the movie floundered at the beginning of the third act, and Lawrence has proved a tad prickly in the mass media craze since nominations, but those are gripes the Academy may overlook as this is Silver Linings best chance at an award, where ZDT likely wins a few technical and fights for adapted screenplay with Lincoln. Also Harvey Weinstein is putting full force behind Lawrence.
I would personally pick Chastain, but my gut says this is Lawrence's award right now. Keep checking back for my official predictions closer to the ceremony.
-Maximus
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