Oscars Show and Predictions Recap

The big night is over! I personally thought it was a mixed bag of a show. I thought host Seth McFarlane was fantastic, funny, topical, and had the right tone all night. The crazy love for a ten year old Best Picture winner that has all but been removed from public thought is strange, but when you realize the producers of this telecast were executive producers on Chicago, it makes more sense. I felt the Bond tribute was lacking, and while the Les Mis performance was solid, most other musical numbers fell flat. Overall a solid year, and I would love for McFarlane to come back next year.

It looks like its about time to predict next years oscars, but before we get to the year ahead, lets see how we did with our predictions.

Best Picture-Argo

Both myself and Diomedes nailed this one, but so did most people. It was pretty clear, and anything but Argo winning would have been a massive upset. Argo was one of my top three films of the year and is deserving of this award. 

Best Director-Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Both myself and Diomedes had Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. I did have Lee as my "could win" however. This became a real race about 3 weeks ago. Life of Pi was probably a slightly lesser film than Lincoln, but it is a monumental directing achievement. And you just get the feeling everyone in Hollywood loves Lee, and he always seems like the underdog since his films never win Best Picture. 

Best Actor-Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln

We nailed this one, again though, it was one of the most obvious races in years. 

Best Actress-Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

I correctly predicted Lawrence, Diomedes had Lawrence as his second choice, voting instead for Jessica Chastain. I do wish Chastain would have won, but Lawrence was great as well. The good news is that the overrated performance from Emmanuelle Riva didn't pull the upset. 

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

A funny switch up here, if you followed our predictions here, I correctly predicted Waltz, and Diomedes predicted Phillip Seymour Hoffman, however on our ballots at our Oscar party, Diomedes correctly changed his pick to Waltz, and I incorrectly changed mine to Lee Jones. Waltz is well deserving here, as Jones would have been. This has been and continues to be the best category in the Oscars. 

Best Supporting Actress-Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Both correct here, another obvious race. A well deserved win for Hathaway, one of the most heartbreaking and soul destroying scenes in movie history. 

Best Original Screenplay-Django Unchained

Both correct here as well, however this is another one where I changed it on my personal ballot to Zero Dark Thirty, assuming it had to win one of the main 6 awards. Tarantino is a great choice here for an amazing and original script. I do wish Tarantino would button his top button though. He looks like a slob and it doesn't show how tidy and organized his scripts are. 

Best Adapted Screenplay-Argo

Both correct here as well. Although I was tempted by Lincoln. Chris Terro's script came on late, and was well deserved. 

Best Animated Film-Brave

Both correct again. This was a change I made the Friday before the Oscars, so I hoped you followed my advice to check back again Sunday morning for updates. I got the feeling that Wreck-It Ralph, while considered critically superior, was the type of film many older voters wouldn't get. 

Best Cinematography- Life of Pi

I changed this one on Friday as well, and got it right. Diomedes picked Lincoln here, and Skyfall was also a popular choice. Roger Deakins will continue to be the bridesmaid in this category, maybe next year. 

Best Costume Design- Anna Karenina

I was correct with this one, since Karenina had the big flowing dresses the Academy usually loves. Diomedes picked Les Miserables. Mirror Mirror was also a very popular choice here. 

Best Film Editing- Argo

This was one of only three awards I thought would go to Argo, and only those three did. Diomedes continued to ride the Lincoln train here, but again, if I was voting for what should win, I think Lincoln was the best edited film of the year. 

Makeup & Hairstyling- Les Miserables

We both nailed this one, correctly guessing that the prosthetic route and fantasy route would cancel each other out, giving it the film that succeeded at making its beautiful actors and actresses look....dirty? Lets be honest here thought, its much harder to make convincing dwarves and elves than to make people look grungy. 

Music (Original Score)- Life of Pi

We both correctly predicted Life of Pi, which was the most nontraditional and unique score of the year. All five nominees were worthy here but the award should have gone to a film that was not even nominated though, The Dark Knight Rises and Hans Zimmer's amazing, rousing score. 

Music (Original Song)- Skyfall, Skyfall

Skyfall was the obvious choice here, and we both correctly predicted it. You know the Academy wanted to hop on the Adele train. 

Production Design-Lincoln

Formerly Art Direction, the name was changed to correctly reflect the award. This was one of only two wins for Lincoln, and we both accurately predicted it would win. This was another though I changed for my personal ballot. 

Sound Editing- *Tie* Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty

Whoa! A tie, this was awesome. I was very excited, and then to also see the two winners had the exact same 3 foot long blonde hair was even more fantastic. Diomedes correctly predicted Zero Dark Thirty here. I continued on the Life of Pi train and lost this category. 

Sound Mixing-Les Miserables

We both correctly predicted Les Mis here, which was an obvious choice based off its live singing. 

Visual Effects-Life of Pi

The first person played off with the Jaws music, but again another correctly predicted easy winner here. It was awkward having the stars of one nominee (Chris Evans, Samuel L. Jackson, Robery Downey Jr, Mark Ruffalo, and Jeremy Renner of The Avengers) present this award to another film. 

Documentary Feature- Searching for Sugar Man

We both correctly predicted this feel good film would take home the prize. 

Documentary Short- Inocente

I correctly predicted this one based off the underdog theme. Diomedes thought the heart wrenching (no pun intended) Open Heart would win. 

Foreign Language Film-Amour

Come on, if this didn't win, we would have to evaluate how the Academy does its voting, since this film was the only Foreign Language film nominated for Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay. 

Short Film (Animated) - Paperman

A great, great short film was deservedly awarded here. We both correctly predicted this one as well.

Short Film (Live Action)- Curfew

We both predicted this one as well, it was the only American film of the five, and that tends to impact the race in this category. 

So overall if you followed myself and Diomedes predictions, you did pretty well. I ended up with 22 of 24 categories right, missing out on Director and Sound Editing. Diomedes nailed 17 of 24 categories, missing Director, Doc short, Costumes, Actress, Editing, Cinematography, and Supporting Actor. Check back in the next week or so for my way too far in advance 2014 Oscar Predictions. Its been a fun year, thanks everyone for reading and we hope to bring even more fun in 2013. 

-Maximus

Movie Ninja's Oscar Guide

Today is the  big day, you can see our Oscar predictions in our last two posts. But now the question is what should you expect tonight? What should we watch for? Here is the Movie Ninja's Guide to the Oscars.

1. The Red Carpet-who cares right? I personally could care less who is wearing who. Having said that, there is always some fun to be had. Jennifer Lawrence has been funny and brutally honest, and with her once locked in award slipping away, will she be able to hold back her brutal honesty? In addition there are many fun personalities nominated this year, Hugh Jackman, Anne Hathaway, Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, and Bradley Cooper just to name a few.

2. Seth McFarlane-Some don't appreciate his brand of humor, but there is no argument he is one of the smartest people in Hollywood. Watch one episode of Family Guy and you'll see at least 5 references to pop culture, and deep pop culture at that. He also has skewered everyone in Hollywood, so will he go easy on the insults or is he going to be in full fledged mean mode? It will be interesting to see how his peers respond to his humor, and don't forget he is a classically trained singer and astounding pianist.

3. The outcome- Check our predictions, but this is one of the most random years I can remember. Last year you knew The Artist and Hugo would win most awards, but this year, who knows? Lincoln was the most nominated film and the favorite, but Argo has won all the precursors, and what about Life of Pi, Silver Lining's Playbook, and Amour? All 3 are also loved by the Academy, but how much support do they have? Will Life of Pi take all the technical s? I could see this year going chalk, Argo/Spielberg/Day-Lewis/Lawrence/Hathaway and Pi for all the techs, but I could also see me being very surprised tomorrow. Lee for Director? Lincoln or Silver Lining's for Picture? Does Lincoln win a lot of those technical awards we have given to Pi? Who knows what will happen?

4. The Supporting Actor Award- The most unpredictable of the major awards in the ten years I have been covering the Oscars. There is nothing that would surprise me here, although I hope its Christoph Waltz, but Tommy Lee Jones is also deserving. So does the favorite industry veteran (Jones) who has shown a very cranky and unlikable side win? Does the lovable, in the wrong category guy (Waltz) win? Does the long time golden boy with his first good movie in a decade (De Niro) win for a one scene performance? What about the guy with the small part but the most support for his film (Arkin)? Or the guy who brings it every time and is always great (Hoffman)? No one knows. I picked Jones, but am torn on this award. In past years this award was one of the first given, but not last year. If they do give this award early, it may indicate whats to come. If Arkin wins, the Argo support is real. If De Niro wins, watch out for Lawrence for Actress and SLP for screenplay, director, and even picture. If Lee Jones takes it, it makes Day-Lewis' victory all the more certain, and maybe shows the strong bias towards Lincoln. Waltz winning doesn't indicate much since Django is a long shot in anything else but screenplay.

5. The Ending- Apparently McFarlane and Kristin Chenowith are going to do a big, memorable, musical number to end the show. Usually the show ends quickly after Best Picture is announced, so why the change? And why Chenowith? She hasn't done anything notable since Pushing Daisies ended 5 years ago, and even then she wasn't exactly notable.

6. The Backlash- Look back at our Best Picture winners the last few years? Crash gets destroyed whenever it is brought up, The Departed is considered a lifetime achievement award for Scorsese and is never talked about as being great on its own. The Artist is considered light and Hollywood patting itself on the back. The King's Speech now is looked at as undeserving since The Social Network was superior. So if Argo wins, there will be backlash, but how much? If Lincoln or Life of Pi win, what will the evident backlash be? You know its coming, the question is it backlash that the masses agree with (Crash) or something people brush off (The Departed).

Whatever happens, enjoy the ride tonight. Its the biggest night of the year for the movie industry. Check back this week for my recap, and then soon after for my annual way too far in advance 2014 Oscar preview.

-Maximus

Diomedes' Official Oscar Predictions

Alright so in my opinion this is a rough year.  There are a lot of tough categories with numerous potential winners out there due to either very good competition or just weak choices.  Maximus is a beast of a critic and an excellent predictor when it comes to the Oscars.  He has a great sense of what the Academy is looking for.  If you want a solid chance of winning an Oscar ballot pool, look at Maximus' predictions.  But if you would like more of a wild card approach, take a look at what my guesses will be for 2013 below.

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of The Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Argo

Ok so not a big difference from Maximus' picks but I think you may see that theme on a couple of the big awards.  I think Lincoln has a big shot at winning due to it being a Spielberg picture and Daniel Day-Lewis' excellent performance but for me I still think Argo was the best picture of the year.

Best Director

Lincoln: Steven Spielberg

Amour: Michael Haneke

Beasts of the Southern Wild: Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi: Ang Lee

Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Silver Linings Playbook

Dark Horse: Life of Pi

Should Win: Lincoln

Spielberg.  Enough Said. 

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln

Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix: The Master

Denzel Washington: Flight

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Could Win: No one  

Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Daniel Day-Lewis has this one hands down.  He emerged again to give an amazing performance and now we won't see him until 2015.

Best Actress

Naomi Watts: The Impossible

Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook

Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Emmanuelle Riva: Amour

Will Win: Jessica Chastain

Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Dark Horse: Emmanuelle Riva

Should Win: Jessica Chastain

This is one of the toughest races this year.  Most will probably go toward Jennifer Lawrence because she did have an excellent performance in Silver Linings Playbook.  I though want to go with Jessica Chastian on this one.  She gave an excellent performance as well and I think the academy will lean towards her as she is a little more matured and has been nominated in the past.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro: Silver Linings Playbook

Alan Arkin: Argo

Phillip Seymour Hoffman: The Master

Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained

Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln

Will Win: Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Could Win: Christoph Waltz

Dark Horse: Tommy Lee Jones

I think I may be going a little out there on this one but I feel like the Master is a movie that the academy voters love and will show that by throwing the oscar toward Hoffman.  I want to say though that any of them could win this one.  I also want to say that I felt Leo got snubbed in Django and should be here over Waltz and Cranston got snubbed in Argo and should be here over Arkin.  Both Arkin and Waltz gave very good performances but I felt Leo and Cranston were just a little better in those movies. 

Best Supporting Actress

Jacki Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook

Amy Adams: The Master

Sally Field: Lincoln

Helen Hunt: The Sessions

Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables

Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Could Win: Amy Adams

Dark Horse: Sally Field

Should Win: Anne Hathaway

I will be really disappointed if Anne Hathaway doesn't win.  I think she gave the best performance out of all of the nominees.  Her crying and showing emotion while actually singing had to be very difficult but she hit it perfectly.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win: Argo

Could Win: Beast of the Southern Wild

Dark Horse: Lincoln

Should Win: Argo

As Maximus said, they will want to throw an award at Lincoln but I feel Lincoln will receive many so I don't feel its a necessary to give it this award.  I think Argo will grab this award.  It got a lot of steam in a few categories for the other award shows so I think it could sneak away with this one.

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Django Unchained

Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Dark Horse: Amour

Should Win: Django Unchained

I am rooting for Django for this one because I think it maybe the only one it wins.  I think Zero Dark Thirty has a good chance of winning this one those as again it wont be receiving many awards either.  Amour is the same way but I just don't feel Amour should be as large a part of the Oscars as it is so I'm voting it down.

Best Animated Film

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Will Win: Brave

Could Win: Wreck-It Ralph

Dark Horse: Frankenweenie

Should Win: N/A

I haven't actually seen the nominees in this category this year either, but my gut says Brave because its one of those fairy tale journeys that I feel the Academy will love, as Maximus mentions in his predictions. 

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Django Unchained

Dark Horse: Life of Pi

Should Win: Skyfall

I think this will be another one that goes to Lincoln.  Skyfall had beautiful scenery and and amazing photography but it is classified as a Bond movie which will discredit it in the Academy’s eyes.

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Mirror Mirror

Should Win: Snow White and the Huntsman

I think the award will go to Les Miserables because the Academy loves time pieces and they tend to award a movie like Les Miserables for showing the times instead of a movie that has very difficult or unique costumes.

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Argo

Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Argo

I think this is another Lincoln will snag.  I could be completely wrong but I think the Academy is going to continue to give Lincoln a lot of awards throughout the night.

Makeup & Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: The Hobbit

Dark Horse: Hitchcock

Should Win: The Hobbit

I think, like my partner mentions, that they give this to Les Miserables due to it being a transformation toward a time piece instead of actually looking at difficulty and time to create outcome for this category.

Music (Original Score)

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Should Win: Skyfall

It seems that Pi has a very good score and the Acedemy will lean that way.

Music (Original Song)

"Before My Time" Chasing Ice

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" Ted

"Pi's Lullaby" Life of Pi

"Skyfall" Skyfall

"Suddenly" Les Miserables

Will Win: Skyfall

Could Win: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Pi's Lullaby

Should Win: Skyfall

Adele is a beast when it comes to racking in the awards so this one will be the only Skyfall win and be the first Bond song to win this award.

Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Life of Pi

Should Win: Lincoln

Lincoln again will be rewarded by the Academy for this category.  As Maximus says, the CGI will probably rule out some of the other top contenders.

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Could Win: Life of Pi

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Zero Dark Thrity is a much more serious movie than Skyfall and contains a lot of the same sounds but maybe on a different scale.  I think it wins because Skyfall has the Bond stigma which will discredit it.

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: Argo

Dark Horse: Life of Pi

Should Win: Les Miserables

Les Miserables was all about the sound from effect noises, to singing, to fighting in the streets during singing.  I think it wins this one.

Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Marvel's The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Snow White

Dark Horse: The Avengers

Should Win: Snow White

Life of Pi is really the only choice because it is a serious movie with a lot of support and the Academy would definitely choose a movie like this over a super hero, fairy tale, alien, or fantasy film. 

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Could Win: How to Survive a Plague

Dark Horse: The Gatekeepers

Should Win: N/A

I agree with them choosing a more light hearted movie over the other depressing choices for this category.

Documentary Short

Inocente

Kings Point

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Redemption

Will Win: Open Heart

Could Win: Inocente

Dark Horse: Mondays at Racine

Should Win: Open Heart

I think Open Heart has a good chance at winning due to it dealing with young children who need heart transplants,  Inocente has a good shot to because the Academy loves chasing dreams themes.

Foreign Language Film

Amour

Kon-Tiki

No

A Royal Affair

War Witch

Will Win: Amour

Could Win: War Witch

Dark Horse: Kon-Tiki

Should Win: Amour

It was nominated for best overall picture.  If it doesn’t win than I will be utterly confused with the best picture nod…

Short Film (Animated)

Adam and Dog

Fresh Guacamole

Head over Heels

Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Will Win: Paperman

Could Win: Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare

Dark Horse: Head over Heels

Should Win: Paperman

Looks like Paperman was well received and has a good shot at winning.

Short Film (Live Action)

Asad

Buzkashi Boys

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

Henry

Will Win: Curfew

Could Win: Asad

Dark Horse: Death of a Shadow

Should Win: Asad

Curfew looks to be the leader in this category but I like the idea of Asad maybe sneaking away with this one.

That’s all I got for you.  Hope Seth is a good entertainer this year!  Enjoy the Oscars as they only come and disappoint us once a year.

-Diomedes

Maximus' Official Oscar Predictions

It all has led to this. The big show is Sunday, so its time to make our official Oscar predictions. Diomedes' predictions will follow in the coming days. Keep in mind this is a wide open year, many categories could go multiple ways, so when in doubt, go with your instincts.

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of The Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Argo

Argo has all the  momentum, but the Academy was also the only awards group to not nominate it for Best Director, so maybe we are in for an upset? If we are, I think it goes to Lincoln or SLP, with Amour having an outside chance as well. SLP has the acting branches vote with four nominations, but Lincoln has the most overall support. My confidence from 1-9 for these goes Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Amour, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Les Miserables, Django Unchained. 

Best Director

Lincoln: Steven Spielberg

Amour: Michael Haneke

Beasts of the Southern Wild: Benh Zeitlin

Life of Pi: Ang Lee

Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Life of Pi

Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Without nominations for Kathryn Bigelow, Ben Affleck, or Quentin Tarantino, my vote goes to Spielberg. 

Haneke and Zeitlin are the only ones I have ruled out. I could see this going any other way. I feel like Spielberg was a sure thing when Bigelow and Affleck were left out, but Lee is loved among his peers, and Life of Pi is considered to be a monumental directing achievement. 

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln

Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix: The Master

Denzel Washington: Flight

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Could Win: No one else. 

Dark Horse: Not a single one.

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

This race was over when Daniel Day-Lewis signed his contract. Any other year I could see Jackman, Phoenix, and Cooper all presenting a challenge, but not this year. 

Best Actress

Naomi Watts: The Impossible

Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook

Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild

Emmanuelle Riva: Amour

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence

Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva

Dark Horse: Jessica Chastain

Should Win: Jessica Chastain

This is a legitimate three horse race. Chastain seems to have slipped a bit as Riva rose, but Riva currently has all the momentum. Question is if its enough to beat out Lawrence? I think all those who submitted their ballots before about a week ago voted Lawrence, in the last week I think people may have gravitated towards Riva, but I think too little too late. 

Best Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro: Silver Linings Playbook

Alan Arkin: Argo

Phillip Seymour Hoffman: The Master

Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained

Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln

Will Win: Complete toss up, but I'll say Christoph Waltz

Could Win: Tommy Lee Jones or Robert De Niro

Dark Horse: Alan Arkin or Phillip Seymour Hoffman

I have never been so torn on a major category before. All five have won Oscars before, and all five are veterans. I think I would only be slightly surprised if Arkin or Hoffman won, however any of the other 3 are not a surprise at all. *Update, since this post went up, I am starting to lean towards Tommy Lee Jones. I am really torn right now. 

Best Supporting Actress

Jacki Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook

Amy Adams: The Master

Sally Field: Lincoln

Helen Hunt: The Sessions

Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables

Will Win: Anne Hathaway

Could Win: Sally Field

Dark Horse: Amy Adams

Should Win: Anne Hathaway

Hathaway has dominated all the early awards, and I think it continues. It would be a big surprise if anyone else won. I could see the Academy fawning over the veteran though and giving an honorary award to Field, even though it was a terribly over acted performance. 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Will Win: Argo

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win: Lincoln

A tough category between these three films. Argo won the scripter and the WGA award, but I still think the Academy wants to assure Lincoln of at least one big award. 

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Django Unchained

Could Win: Amour

Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty, or Django Unchained.

Django and ZDT have split most early awards, with ZDT taking the WGA, and Django the Globe. Amour has a lot more support with the Academy though than any other awards body, so I think it could sneak in. 

Best Animated Film

Brave

Frankenweenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Will Win: Brave

Could Win: Wreck-it Ralph

Dark Horse: ParaNorman

Should Win: N/A

I haven't actually seen the nominees in this category this year, but my gut says Wreck-It Ralph has the most support after winning the Annie this year. However the Academy loves Pixar, and I think anyone who hasn't seen all the nominees and anyone who is not a video game fan may vote Brave. *Vote changed to Brave over Wreck-It Ralph.

Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Skyfall

Dark Horse: Lincoln

Should Win: Skyfall

Roger Deakins work on Skyfall was fantastic, but he has been nominated 10 times without a win. Many times this award goes to a film with wide spread support, so in this case it would be Lincoln or Pi. I am starting to think Pi will take many technical awards. * Pick changed to Life of Pi.

Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Anna Karenina

Could Win: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Mirror Mirror

Should Win: Snow White and the Huntsman

Anna Karenina and Mirror Mirror won the Costume Designers Guild awards, and this category has gone to films without many other nominations in the past, so it wouldn't be a shock to see Karenina or Mirror win. I think Les Miserables may get support in technical awards that Pi isn't nominated for so it doesn't go home empty handed. 

Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Zero Dark Thirty

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

This award like cinematography also goes to a film with widespread support usually. Amazingly enough, Argo could win Best Picture without any other awards, so I think the Academy may give this one to it as well. This category is pretty wide open though. 

Makeup & Hairstyling

Hitchcock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: The Hobbit

Dark Horse: Hitchcock

Should Win: The Hobbit

This award many times goes to the film that used makeup to transform a person into a historical figure than a fantasy film, however the makeup in Hitchcock certainly doesn't look award worthy to me. I think fantasy vs biographical will split and win Les Mis the award. 

Music (Original Score)

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Lincoln

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Should Win: Skyfall

All the nominees but Karenina are real possibilities here. Lincoln, Skyfall, and Argo are composed by industry veterans. I am taking a flyer thinking that Life of Pi's unique and powerful score will win it the award. 

Music (Original Song)

"Before My Time" Chasing Ice

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" Ted

"Pi's Lullaby" Life of Pi

"Skyfall" Skyfall

"Suddenly" Les Miserables

Will Win: Skyfall

Could Win: Les Miserables

Dark Horse: Pi's Lullaby

Should Win: Skyfall

Skyfall was a huge hit and everyone loves Adele. In addition its fitting for the first Bond song to win the Award is on Bond's 50th anniversary. 

Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Will Win: Lincoln

Could Win: Life of Pi

Dark Horse: Les Miserables

Should Win: Lincoln

Anna Karenina doesn't have much support overall, and Life of Pi and The Hobbit were too CGI laden for me to reward their production design. So I'll go Lincoln here, although I admit its a guess and its more likely that Life of Pi sweeps all the technical awards. 

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Dark Horse: Skyfall

Should Win: Skyfall

I compare editing to basic sound effects, and all the animal and storm effects in Life of Pi I think will put it over the top, plus again I think Pi takes most of the technical categories. *Pick changed to Pi. 

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Will Win: Les Miserables

Could Win: Skyfall

Dark Horse: Life of Pi

Should Win: Les Miserables

I am going Les Mis since much was made of them doing live singing. But again it lacked traditional "sound effects" so we could see Skyfall win. Life of Pi has a chance since at any give time you had water effects, animal sounds, and human voice. 

Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Marvel's The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Will Win: Life of Pi

Could Win: The Avengers

Dark Horse: Snow White

Should Win: The Avengers

Life of Pi is the only nominee here that the Academy showed much favor to. So that is my guess. 

Documentary Feature

5 Broken Cameras

The Gatekeepers

How to Survive a Plague

The Invisible War

Searching for Sugar Man

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man

Could Win: How to Survive a Plague

Dark Horse: 5 Broken Cameras and The Gatekeepers

Should Win: The Invisible War

Plague, Cameras, War, and Gatekeepers were all depressing. Sugar Man at least was light hearted. However I have a feeling the voters will choose a heavy subject like Aids or rape instead of a light hearted one. 

Documentary Short

Inocente

Kings Point

Mondays at Racine

Open Heart

Redemption

Will Win: Inocente

Could Win: Redemption

Dark Horse: Open Heart

Should Win: Inocente

Tough call as usual in these categories. I say pick the film you liked the most. Damn what experts predict as it never goes that way. 

Foreign Language Film

Amour

Kon-Tiki

No

A Royal Affair

War Witch

Will Win: Amour

Could Win: War Witch

Dark Horse: Kon-Tiki

Should Win: Kon-Tiki

Amour received nominations for Picture, Director, Actress, and Screenplay, none of these others did. I think its pretty easy to guess which way the Academy is leaning.

Short Film (Animated)

Adam and Dog

Fresh Guacamole

Head over Heels

Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare

Paperman

Will Win: Paperman

Could Win: Maggie Simpson in the Longest Daycare

Dark Horse: Fresh Guacamole

Should Win: Paperman

Again, choose your favorite as there is no rhyme or reason to the winner. Paperman was fantastic. 

Short Film (Live Action)

Asad

Buzkashi Boys

Curfew

Death of a Shadow

Henry

Will Win: Curfew

Could Win: Death of a Shadow

Dark Horse: Asad

Should Win: Asad

I think this is close, I personally favored Asad. 

So here are my predictions. Check back Sunday Morning as I may make changes up until then. In some cases I may make changes on my personal ballot right up until Oscar time, especially in the Supporting Actor category. Check back for Diomedes' pick before the big show, and then for my recap after the ceremony. 

-Maximus

The Case for the Best Picture Nominees and Contenders

This is a post discussing the best and worst parts of this year's nominees for Best Picture, as well as some of the contenders that did not make the big dance. We'll start with the nominees and then move on to the films that were left out.

*Note, the films that I haven't seen were not written about, and will be as I see them. Please check back for updates before the telecast.

The Nominees:

Argo
Positives: A tense, well-acted drama. Great performances from Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Victor Garber, Scoot McNairy, Kerry Bishe, Kyle Chandler, and nominee Alan Arkin. The film also found humor in a tense situation, and director Ben Affleck knew when to inject it to not make the film too light hearted. Great score, editing, and a great job of filming certain scenes just how they happened in the real life situation.
Negatives: Took many liberties with the real story and the actual escape was not nearly as close as the film made it seem. Also casting Ben Affleck as Mexican-American Tony Mendez is a bit of a stretch.

Lincoln
Positives: An amazing cast of veteran actors who turn in some of their finest work as historical figures. Daniel Day-Lewis is a revelation as Lincoln, and took a performance that could have been filled with over acting and turned it into his own. Great supporting performances from Tommy Lee-Jones, Lee Pace, David Strathairn, Jared Harris, and Hal Holbrook just to name a few. The film does a great job of actually gaining suspense from an event (passing of the 13th amendment) that everyone knows the outcome of.
Negatives: While Day-Lewis' performance was an exercise in not over doing it, Sally Field just should have screamed "please give me the Oscar" with her performance. She seemed to scream and cry when it had no place in the scene. I understand she was supposed to be a fragile and broken mother, but she wanted her come back a little too much. In addition, since the film was about the passing of the 13th amendment, I could have done without the ending showing the aftermath of the theater, since we didn't see the beginning of Lincoln's life, it didn't seem pertinent to show the end of it.

Silver Linings Playbook
Positives: Great performances from nominees Jacki Weaver, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence, as well as Chris Tucker making a surprising comeback. De Niro's performance in particular is great to see since we have seen him in so many mediocre to bad movies the last decade.
Negatives: Other than the performances, the film was a mess. It felt as though they were writing the script as they filmed the movie, and every time it got stale, a new thing was injected that felt oddly placed. Mental illness, gambling, dancing, and each seemed to give way to the next instead of all being worked in the story together. In addition, things were very convenient and certain characters knew of conversations they weren't present for.

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Positives: Let me try to find one...oh, I have one, it was only an hour and a half long.
Negatives: It was a worthless film, that had no plot, point, or meaning. It was a waste of time. Even my wife hated it, and she likes everything.

Amour
Positives:
Negatives:

Life of Pi
Positives: A fantastical, amazingly well done film. Beautiful and amazing to look at.
Negatives: A bit long, I think it is a love it or hate it film, I loved it, but couldn't begrudge those who don't.

Zero Dark Thirty
Positives: Very solid acting from nominee Jessica Chastain, as well as Kyle Chandler, Jason Clarke, and Joel Edgerton. A very tense film that like Lincoln and Argo, gains great suspense from an event we knew the outcome of in advance.
Negatives: Very few, torture as a means of success became controversial, but I as a viewer am not judging the morality of a screenplay so it takes nothing away for me. There is nothing about Zero Dark Thirty that I would change.

Les Miserables
Positives: Nominees Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway do a great job with their iconic roles. In addition, Russell Crowe is not nearly as bad as some critics would lead you to believe. Eddie Redmayne delivers a great supporting performance. Tom Hooper's direction is visual and unique for a property that has been done in every way, shape, and form.
Negatives: Too long for a musical. The comedic relief in the form of Sasha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter is terribly done, unfunny, and worthless to the plot of the film. Cutting it entirely would have solved both problems.

Django Unchained
Positives: An amazingly acted film, Jamie Foxx, Leonardo DiCaprio, Kerry Washington, and nominee Christoph Waltz are fantastic. The most unique film of the year. Tarantino's direction is unique and stylized as only his films can be. The screenplay is electric and as good as you would expect from Tarantino.
Negatives: Tarantino purposely made an unrealistically violent spaghetti Western. The songs in the film sing directly to what the characters are doing on screen, and all other aspects of the film are purposefully cheesy and over the top. This turned many people off, especially those who don't believe it was on purpose.

The Other Contenders:

Flight
Positives: A well acted and smart adult drama. Nothing too flashy, and it more accurately portrays alcoholism than most films that turn it into a caricature of what it really is. Great visuals as well.
Negatives: Spoiler alert, not a happy ending like most want from this type of redemption story. Kelly Reilly's story line also gets dropped really quickly once her relationship with Washington's character ends.

Dark Knight Rises
Positives: A sweeping, amazing epic. Director Chris Nolan knows how to cast and shoot a comic movie like no one else can. Despite its three hour run time, the film feels short and concise and only includes what is needed. Michael Caine and Tom Hardy give great supporting performances.
Negatives: It could be the best film of the year, but if not better than The Dark Knight, it would never be taken seriously in awards season, and that appears to be what happened.

The Master
Positives:
Negatives:

Moonrise Kingdom
Positives:
Negatives:

Looper
Positives: A great twisty time travel epic. Went the extra mile to make sure two actors playing the same character at different stages actually look right. Great supporting performances from Jeff Daniels, Emily Blunt, and young Pierre Gagnon. The script is fantastic and Joseph Gordon-Levitt does a great job with his first big leading role.
Negatives: Bruce Willis is Bruce Willis, and he will always be the Bruce Willis/John McClane that we know him to be. After his mid career failed attempt at going out of his comfort zone (The Story of Us, Breakfast of Champions, Alpha Dog) he came back to just being the wise cracking action hero we know and love. He doesn't weaken the movie, but he doesn't add anything either.

Prometheus
Positives: A prequel to a beloved sci fi franchise that completely turns the series on his head without compromising it. Well acted, and doesn't tread familiar ground even though its the (give or take a few) 7th film in the Alien world.
Negatives: It was love it or hate it. I personally loved it, but many didn't. It took much backlash from religious groups and while many expected horror, suspense was the more fitting description.

Skyfall
Positives: Much  better than Quantum of Solace, gets back to some Bond basics like Q and Moneypenny. An emotional climax not usually seen in popcorn movies. Great performances.
Negatives: Went back to some of the cheesy  Bond stereotypes like the car with machine guns and an ejector seat.

The Sessions
Positives:
Negatives:

The Impossible
Positives:
Negatives:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Positives: Great score, and a sweeping epic in the vein of LOTR.
Negatives: Never found the correct tone. The film couldn't be sure if it wanted to be whimsical and fun like most of The Hobbit book is, or dark and dramatic like the LOTR trilogy. Turning a 250 page book into 9 hours of film is looking like a mistake as well, as there was much obvious filler in the first film.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Supporting Performances)

The supporting races are in two very different positions, Best Supporting Actor seems to be pretty wide open, while Best Supporting Actress is about locked in. We'll start with the obvious one.

We won't spend a lot of time on Best Supporting Actress because like Best Actor, it is seemingly in the bag. Anne Hathaway has won all the major precursor awards for Les Miserables, and there is no reason to think this Academy darling won't win come Oscar night. While she has not won before, she has hosted previously and done a musical number the year Hugh Jackman hosted. Sally Field is the only other contender, and she could still surprise since the Academy does often reward older performers, but it is unlikely. Jacki Weaver and Helen Hunt's nominations were their victories, and while Amy Adams seemed like she had a good shot in the early fall, her chances have faded as well. Anne Hathaway became the favorite from the moment her "I Dreamed a Dream" anchored the first trailer for Les Mis.

Best Supporting Actor is a little bit tougher. Leonardo DiCaprio was expected to be a major contender throughout the summer and the fall for his against type performance in Django Unchained, but he was snubbed in favor of his costar Christoph Waltz. The other nominees, Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln, Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master, Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin for Argo, all could sneak away with this one, as could Waltz. Currently I would put Tommy Lee Jones as the favorite. He won the SAG award and a few other minor awards, and Lincoln is widely praised for its acting. Everyone seems to love De Niro and I think many are very happy to see him make a return to good movies. Alan Arkin won here a few years ago, and Argo is gaining wide support since its Best Director snub, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is an Academy favorite as well, plus it may be the Master's only chance for an award. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for Django, and also won a few years ago for Inglorious Basterds. So basically this award is wide open. Currently I would put Lee Jones at a 50/50 shot to win, Arkin at a 20% chance, De Niro, Waltz, and Hoffman at 10% each. Keep an eye on this award, this may change quite a bit in the next two weeks.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Actress and Actor)

We have discussed where the Best Picture and Director awards stand and how we got there, now lets turn our attention to the leading acting performances.

Starting with Actor, this one was decided months ago. Daniel Day-Lewis will win this award. This has not and will not change. There was a time when Hugh Jackman seemed to have a shot, but then Lincoln came out. Not much more to cover here.

Best Actress is closer. While you can rule out three of the nominees, it's about 50/50 between the other two. Jennifer Lawrence of The Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain of Zero Dark Thirty are options 1 and 1a. Both won Golden Globes, however Lawrence surged forward with a SAG win. Both were nominated last year, and both movies have wide support. As the intensely focused CIA operative in Zero Dark Thirty, Chastain's performance is a dramatic masterpiece, however there is a certain lack of flashiness, and the Academy loves flashiness. Lawrence's performance has that flashiness, she was able to do comedy, wit, and heavy drama. The performance seemed to strain a bit when the movie floundered at the beginning of the third act, and Lawrence has proved a tad prickly in the mass media craze since nominations, but those are gripes the Academy may overlook as this is Silver Linings best chance at an award, where ZDT likely wins a few technical and fights for adapted screenplay with Lincoln. Also Harvey Weinstein is putting full force behind Lawrence.

I would personally pick Chastain, but my gut says this is Lawrence's award right now. Keep checking back for my official predictions closer to the ceremony.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Best Picture and Best Director). *Updated

It seemed like in early September, The Master and Moonrise Kingdom were the early favorites to fight for Best Picture. Dark Knight Rises was thought to have a shot, but you felt like people were underwhelmed by it. Two movies that last year at this time (The Wettest County and Cogans Trade) got title changes and were released with little to no fanfare (Lawless and Killing Them Softly). Two movies pundits expected great things from (World War Z and The Great Gatsby) were pushed back to next year, and a small indie movie (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was the only thing from Summer that seemed to still have a shot. Than Argo came out, and changed the landscape, it was the instant favorite. It stayed the favorite through October and November, and seemed unstoppable. But every year we see this, a movie comes out, and is a powerhouse, just to be unseated by something that is the craze right when the nominations are due. Think The Social Network being unseated by The Kings Speech or The Hurt Locker coming from nowhere to unseat Avatar. And this year was no different, you saw Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Flight all seemed to chip away at Argo's thunder. And while Argo maintained enough momentum to stay in the race, many thought it would simply fade like so many other movies. We also saw Skyfall become a phenomenon, The Hobbit underwhelm, and a little French movie about dementia start to climb. We saw Les Miserables and Django Unchained open the same weekend, while one that was considered a real BP contender (Les Mis) underwhelmed just enough to not make it a serious threat to win, Django  however seemed to gain some serious momentum. The Golden Globe nominations came out, and as usual, they went with the obvious choices, ignoring smaller films like Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Amour. It felt like we knew what we were getting come Academy Award nomination time, Lincoln, Argo, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, and Life of Pi seemed like they would be the choices. With the small chance a blockbuster like Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, or Looper sneaking in. Then came the Academy Award nominations, and all those films minus the blockbuster received a best picture nomination, in addition, we did see the support for the small films like Beasts and Amour, both also receiving a BP nomination. However, things got funny when the Best Director nominations were announced, with sure things Spielberg and Li for Lincoln and Pi respectively, being the only expected nominees. David O'Russell received a BD nomination for a light hearted romantic comedy, and the directors of Beasts and Amour also received nominations, showing just how much support there was for those two films. However, Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, and Ben Affleck were all left out, and basically, that was the death stoke for the BP chances of Django, ZDT, Les Mis, and Argo. Lincoln and Life of Pi rocketed to 1st and 2nd place, followed by Silver Linings, Amour, and Beasts. Only 4 times in the almost 100 year history of the awards has a film won BP without a BD nomination, and the last time was in the seventies. Lately even films considered not to be directing achievements like The Kings Speech and The Artist were awarded BD because of their overall support. It was than that movie experts and prognosticators and bloggers felt these slighted films had no chance at best picture. But then on a Saturday night in January, The Critics Choice awards handed Best Director and Best Picture to Argo, not a huge shock, as the Critics choice Awards often don't align with the Academy. Even Affleck poked fun at it when accepting his award. The next night were the Golden Globes, and the Comedy side saw Les Mis and Silver Linings continue their runs, the screenplay and supporting actor award went to Django, and then came time for the Best Director and Picture of a drama awards. Director, went to a genuinely shocked Ben Affleck. Picture a few minutes later, allowed Argo to be the big winner. The next day people laughed and discussed the disconnect between the Hollywood Foreign Press (Golden Globes voting body) and the Academy, discussing how Lincoln clearly is still the favorite. Django Unchained lost the slight momentum it had gained, Les Mis gained more backlash, and most figured Amour and Beast's nominations were their awards. Things seemed to become clearer, but then a few weeks later, the Producers guild gave their highest honor to Argo as well. The next night, SAG also awarded Argo, and even before its snub for director at the Oscars, SAG was not expected to honor Argo. It was after this, with only two major awards remaining (Oscars and DGA) that Argo is the favorite again. So the question, is how does this happen? How does a film not make the best five directing achievements but possibly win best picture? Keep reading for my theories.

Unlike the Golden Globes, The Academy is broken into branches. Actors vote for actors, Directors for directors, writers for screenplay, editors for editors, designers for costumes, and so on. However everyone from visual effects artists to composers to actors votes for Best Picture. Clearly Argo had enough support to get a Picture nomination, but not enough for directing. So here are the possibilities: 1) The Directors didn't care for the movie, but all other branches did. Argo could still easily win Best Picture in this scenario. 2) The Directors all bought into the thought that ZDT and Argo were shoe ins for a Director nomination, so they voted for other films just so they could get some votes and be appreciated, however with many subscribing to this, many people's actual favorites ZDT and Argo got accidentally left out. Argo could still win BP in this scenario as well. 3) People really liked the film, but still really do not like Ben Affleck, hence why he received no directing nomination, and wasn't ever even considered for Acting. Argo likely loses Picture in this scenario. 

Whatever the theory is, we'll never really know what happened. But I think what the SAG award signifies, is that the Best Director snub is not something most voting members are happy about, and there is a good chance now people are voting for it out of spite, this is the "Ar-go F yourself" theory. If this is correct, then Argo likely wins big on Oscar night. I believe this theory because how can a film win the SAG award over other nominated films who had more individual performances nominated? Argo had just one SAG individual nomination for Alan Arkin, Silver Linings Playbook had 4 (De Niro, Weaver, Cooper, Lawrence) and won 1. Les Mis had 2 (Hathaway, Jackman) and won 1. Lincoln had 3 (Lee Jones, Day Lewis, and Field) and won 2. So how could the overall cast be that much better if individual performances were that much worse (worse is a strong word, how about "less amazing")? This is why I think voters are now rallying behind Argo, a show of support for what they feel is the best film and a film they feel was snubbed for Best Director. 

So how will it all end? I still think Lincoln is in the thick of it, it was given the most overall nominations meaning it has great support across most categories, and the Academy is still much less progressive, and usually goes the route they indicate they are going early. Either way it does seem to be a two horse race now. The smart money is still the Academy going Lincoln, but if the DGA goes Argo tonight, then I think we'll have a new favorite in the club house. 

As for Director, the film that usually wins Best Picture wins Best Director. If Lincoln wins Picture, we can assume Spielberg takes home Director as well. But if Argo continues its run and wins Picture, does Spielberg still win Director? I think so. I feel Beasts and Amour are not real contenders in this category, as stated before, the nomination was their award. Life of Pi may be the most amazing directing achievement, but again overall support is muted. David O'Russell may be the biggest threat to Spielberg, but I still think the chances of that happening are slim. 

-Maximus