The Case for the Best Picture Nominees and Contenders

This is a post discussing the best and worst parts of this year's nominees for Best Picture, as well as some of the contenders that did not make the big dance. We'll start with the nominees and then move on to the films that were left out.

*Note, the films that I haven't seen were not written about, and will be as I see them. Please check back for updates before the telecast.

The Nominees:

Argo
Positives: A tense, well-acted drama. Great performances from Ben Affleck, Bryan Cranston, John Goodman, Victor Garber, Scoot McNairy, Kerry Bishe, Kyle Chandler, and nominee Alan Arkin. The film also found humor in a tense situation, and director Ben Affleck knew when to inject it to not make the film too light hearted. Great score, editing, and a great job of filming certain scenes just how they happened in the real life situation.
Negatives: Took many liberties with the real story and the actual escape was not nearly as close as the film made it seem. Also casting Ben Affleck as Mexican-American Tony Mendez is a bit of a stretch.

Lincoln
Positives: An amazing cast of veteran actors who turn in some of their finest work as historical figures. Daniel Day-Lewis is a revelation as Lincoln, and took a performance that could have been filled with over acting and turned it into his own. Great supporting performances from Tommy Lee-Jones, Lee Pace, David Strathairn, Jared Harris, and Hal Holbrook just to name a few. The film does a great job of actually gaining suspense from an event (passing of the 13th amendment) that everyone knows the outcome of.
Negatives: While Day-Lewis' performance was an exercise in not over doing it, Sally Field just should have screamed "please give me the Oscar" with her performance. She seemed to scream and cry when it had no place in the scene. I understand she was supposed to be a fragile and broken mother, but she wanted her come back a little too much. In addition, since the film was about the passing of the 13th amendment, I could have done without the ending showing the aftermath of the theater, since we didn't see the beginning of Lincoln's life, it didn't seem pertinent to show the end of it.

Silver Linings Playbook
Positives: Great performances from nominees Jacki Weaver, Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence, as well as Chris Tucker making a surprising comeback. De Niro's performance in particular is great to see since we have seen him in so many mediocre to bad movies the last decade.
Negatives: Other than the performances, the film was a mess. It felt as though they were writing the script as they filmed the movie, and every time it got stale, a new thing was injected that felt oddly placed. Mental illness, gambling, dancing, and each seemed to give way to the next instead of all being worked in the story together. In addition, things were very convenient and certain characters knew of conversations they weren't present for.

Beasts of the Southern Wild
Positives: Let me try to find one...oh, I have one, it was only an hour and a half long.
Negatives: It was a worthless film, that had no plot, point, or meaning. It was a waste of time. Even my wife hated it, and she likes everything.

Amour
Positives:
Negatives:

Life of Pi
Positives: A fantastical, amazingly well done film. Beautiful and amazing to look at.
Negatives: A bit long, I think it is a love it or hate it film, I loved it, but couldn't begrudge those who don't.

Zero Dark Thirty
Positives: Very solid acting from nominee Jessica Chastain, as well as Kyle Chandler, Jason Clarke, and Joel Edgerton. A very tense film that like Lincoln and Argo, gains great suspense from an event we knew the outcome of in advance.
Negatives: Very few, torture as a means of success became controversial, but I as a viewer am not judging the morality of a screenplay so it takes nothing away for me. There is nothing about Zero Dark Thirty that I would change.

Les Miserables
Positives: Nominees Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway do a great job with their iconic roles. In addition, Russell Crowe is not nearly as bad as some critics would lead you to believe. Eddie Redmayne delivers a great supporting performance. Tom Hooper's direction is visual and unique for a property that has been done in every way, shape, and form.
Negatives: Too long for a musical. The comedic relief in the form of Sasha Baron Cohen and Helena Bonham Carter is terribly done, unfunny, and worthless to the plot of the film. Cutting it entirely would have solved both problems.

Django Unchained
Positives: An amazingly acted film, Jamie Foxx, Leonardo DiCaprio, Kerry Washington, and nominee Christoph Waltz are fantastic. The most unique film of the year. Tarantino's direction is unique and stylized as only his films can be. The screenplay is electric and as good as you would expect from Tarantino.
Negatives: Tarantino purposely made an unrealistically violent spaghetti Western. The songs in the film sing directly to what the characters are doing on screen, and all other aspects of the film are purposefully cheesy and over the top. This turned many people off, especially those who don't believe it was on purpose.

The Other Contenders:

Flight
Positives: A well acted and smart adult drama. Nothing too flashy, and it more accurately portrays alcoholism than most films that turn it into a caricature of what it really is. Great visuals as well.
Negatives: Spoiler alert, not a happy ending like most want from this type of redemption story. Kelly Reilly's story line also gets dropped really quickly once her relationship with Washington's character ends.

Dark Knight Rises
Positives: A sweeping, amazing epic. Director Chris Nolan knows how to cast and shoot a comic movie like no one else can. Despite its three hour run time, the film feels short and concise and only includes what is needed. Michael Caine and Tom Hardy give great supporting performances.
Negatives: It could be the best film of the year, but if not better than The Dark Knight, it would never be taken seriously in awards season, and that appears to be what happened.

The Master
Positives:
Negatives:

Moonrise Kingdom
Positives:
Negatives:

Looper
Positives: A great twisty time travel epic. Went the extra mile to make sure two actors playing the same character at different stages actually look right. Great supporting performances from Jeff Daniels, Emily Blunt, and young Pierre Gagnon. The script is fantastic and Joseph Gordon-Levitt does a great job with his first big leading role.
Negatives: Bruce Willis is Bruce Willis, and he will always be the Bruce Willis/John McClane that we know him to be. After his mid career failed attempt at going out of his comfort zone (The Story of Us, Breakfast of Champions, Alpha Dog) he came back to just being the wise cracking action hero we know and love. He doesn't weaken the movie, but he doesn't add anything either.

Prometheus
Positives: A prequel to a beloved sci fi franchise that completely turns the series on his head without compromising it. Well acted, and doesn't tread familiar ground even though its the (give or take a few) 7th film in the Alien world.
Negatives: It was love it or hate it. I personally loved it, but many didn't. It took much backlash from religious groups and while many expected horror, suspense was the more fitting description.

Skyfall
Positives: Much  better than Quantum of Solace, gets back to some Bond basics like Q and Moneypenny. An emotional climax not usually seen in popcorn movies. Great performances.
Negatives: Went back to some of the cheesy  Bond stereotypes like the car with machine guns and an ejector seat.

The Sessions
Positives:
Negatives:

The Impossible
Positives:
Negatives:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Positives: Great score, and a sweeping epic in the vein of LOTR.
Negatives: Never found the correct tone. The film couldn't be sure if it wanted to be whimsical and fun like most of The Hobbit book is, or dark and dramatic like the LOTR trilogy. Turning a 250 page book into 9 hours of film is looking like a mistake as well, as there was much obvious filler in the first film.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Supporting Performances)

The supporting races are in two very different positions, Best Supporting Actor seems to be pretty wide open, while Best Supporting Actress is about locked in. We'll start with the obvious one.

We won't spend a lot of time on Best Supporting Actress because like Best Actor, it is seemingly in the bag. Anne Hathaway has won all the major precursor awards for Les Miserables, and there is no reason to think this Academy darling won't win come Oscar night. While she has not won before, she has hosted previously and done a musical number the year Hugh Jackman hosted. Sally Field is the only other contender, and she could still surprise since the Academy does often reward older performers, but it is unlikely. Jacki Weaver and Helen Hunt's nominations were their victories, and while Amy Adams seemed like she had a good shot in the early fall, her chances have faded as well. Anne Hathaway became the favorite from the moment her "I Dreamed a Dream" anchored the first trailer for Les Mis.

Best Supporting Actor is a little bit tougher. Leonardo DiCaprio was expected to be a major contender throughout the summer and the fall for his against type performance in Django Unchained, but he was snubbed in favor of his costar Christoph Waltz. The other nominees, Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln, Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master, Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin for Argo, all could sneak away with this one, as could Waltz. Currently I would put Tommy Lee Jones as the favorite. He won the SAG award and a few other minor awards, and Lincoln is widely praised for its acting. Everyone seems to love De Niro and I think many are very happy to see him make a return to good movies. Alan Arkin won here a few years ago, and Argo is gaining wide support since its Best Director snub, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is an Academy favorite as well, plus it may be the Master's only chance for an award. Christoph Waltz won the Golden Globe for Django, and also won a few years ago for Inglorious Basterds. So basically this award is wide open. Currently I would put Lee Jones at a 50/50 shot to win, Arkin at a 20% chance, De Niro, Waltz, and Hoffman at 10% each. Keep an eye on this award, this may change quite a bit in the next two weeks.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Actress and Actor)

We have discussed where the Best Picture and Director awards stand and how we got there, now lets turn our attention to the leading acting performances.

Starting with Actor, this one was decided months ago. Daniel Day-Lewis will win this award. This has not and will not change. There was a time when Hugh Jackman seemed to have a shot, but then Lincoln came out. Not much more to cover here.

Best Actress is closer. While you can rule out three of the nominees, it's about 50/50 between the other two. Jennifer Lawrence of The Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain of Zero Dark Thirty are options 1 and 1a. Both won Golden Globes, however Lawrence surged forward with a SAG win. Both were nominated last year, and both movies have wide support. As the intensely focused CIA operative in Zero Dark Thirty, Chastain's performance is a dramatic masterpiece, however there is a certain lack of flashiness, and the Academy loves flashiness. Lawrence's performance has that flashiness, she was able to do comedy, wit, and heavy drama. The performance seemed to strain a bit when the movie floundered at the beginning of the third act, and Lawrence has proved a tad prickly in the mass media craze since nominations, but those are gripes the Academy may overlook as this is Silver Linings best chance at an award, where ZDT likely wins a few technical and fights for adapted screenplay with Lincoln. Also Harvey Weinstein is putting full force behind Lawrence.

I would personally pick Chastain, but my gut says this is Lawrence's award right now. Keep checking back for my official predictions closer to the ceremony.

-Maximus

Where We Stand (Best Picture and Best Director). *Updated

It seemed like in early September, The Master and Moonrise Kingdom were the early favorites to fight for Best Picture. Dark Knight Rises was thought to have a shot, but you felt like people were underwhelmed by it. Two movies that last year at this time (The Wettest County and Cogans Trade) got title changes and were released with little to no fanfare (Lawless and Killing Them Softly). Two movies pundits expected great things from (World War Z and The Great Gatsby) were pushed back to next year, and a small indie movie (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was the only thing from Summer that seemed to still have a shot. Than Argo came out, and changed the landscape, it was the instant favorite. It stayed the favorite through October and November, and seemed unstoppable. But every year we see this, a movie comes out, and is a powerhouse, just to be unseated by something that is the craze right when the nominations are due. Think The Social Network being unseated by The Kings Speech or The Hurt Locker coming from nowhere to unseat Avatar. And this year was no different, you saw Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Flight all seemed to chip away at Argo's thunder. And while Argo maintained enough momentum to stay in the race, many thought it would simply fade like so many other movies. We also saw Skyfall become a phenomenon, The Hobbit underwhelm, and a little French movie about dementia start to climb. We saw Les Miserables and Django Unchained open the same weekend, while one that was considered a real BP contender (Les Mis) underwhelmed just enough to not make it a serious threat to win, Django  however seemed to gain some serious momentum. The Golden Globe nominations came out, and as usual, they went with the obvious choices, ignoring smaller films like Moonrise Kingdom, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Amour. It felt like we knew what we were getting come Academy Award nomination time, Lincoln, Argo, Django Unchained, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, and Life of Pi seemed like they would be the choices. With the small chance a blockbuster like Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall, or Looper sneaking in. Then came the Academy Award nominations, and all those films minus the blockbuster received a best picture nomination, in addition, we did see the support for the small films like Beasts and Amour, both also receiving a BP nomination. However, things got funny when the Best Director nominations were announced, with sure things Spielberg and Li for Lincoln and Pi respectively, being the only expected nominees. David O'Russell received a BD nomination for a light hearted romantic comedy, and the directors of Beasts and Amour also received nominations, showing just how much support there was for those two films. However, Quentin Tarantino, Kathryn Bigelow, Tom Hooper, and Ben Affleck were all left out, and basically, that was the death stoke for the BP chances of Django, ZDT, Les Mis, and Argo. Lincoln and Life of Pi rocketed to 1st and 2nd place, followed by Silver Linings, Amour, and Beasts. Only 4 times in the almost 100 year history of the awards has a film won BP without a BD nomination, and the last time was in the seventies. Lately even films considered not to be directing achievements like The Kings Speech and The Artist were awarded BD because of their overall support. It was than that movie experts and prognosticators and bloggers felt these slighted films had no chance at best picture. But then on a Saturday night in January, The Critics Choice awards handed Best Director and Best Picture to Argo, not a huge shock, as the Critics choice Awards often don't align with the Academy. Even Affleck poked fun at it when accepting his award. The next night were the Golden Globes, and the Comedy side saw Les Mis and Silver Linings continue their runs, the screenplay and supporting actor award went to Django, and then came time for the Best Director and Picture of a drama awards. Director, went to a genuinely shocked Ben Affleck. Picture a few minutes later, allowed Argo to be the big winner. The next day people laughed and discussed the disconnect between the Hollywood Foreign Press (Golden Globes voting body) and the Academy, discussing how Lincoln clearly is still the favorite. Django Unchained lost the slight momentum it had gained, Les Mis gained more backlash, and most figured Amour and Beast's nominations were their awards. Things seemed to become clearer, but then a few weeks later, the Producers guild gave their highest honor to Argo as well. The next night, SAG also awarded Argo, and even before its snub for director at the Oscars, SAG was not expected to honor Argo. It was after this, with only two major awards remaining (Oscars and DGA) that Argo is the favorite again. So the question, is how does this happen? How does a film not make the best five directing achievements but possibly win best picture? Keep reading for my theories.

Unlike the Golden Globes, The Academy is broken into branches. Actors vote for actors, Directors for directors, writers for screenplay, editors for editors, designers for costumes, and so on. However everyone from visual effects artists to composers to actors votes for Best Picture. Clearly Argo had enough support to get a Picture nomination, but not enough for directing. So here are the possibilities: 1) The Directors didn't care for the movie, but all other branches did. Argo could still easily win Best Picture in this scenario. 2) The Directors all bought into the thought that ZDT and Argo were shoe ins for a Director nomination, so they voted for other films just so they could get some votes and be appreciated, however with many subscribing to this, many people's actual favorites ZDT and Argo got accidentally left out. Argo could still win BP in this scenario as well. 3) People really liked the film, but still really do not like Ben Affleck, hence why he received no directing nomination, and wasn't ever even considered for Acting. Argo likely loses Picture in this scenario. 

Whatever the theory is, we'll never really know what happened. But I think what the SAG award signifies, is that the Best Director snub is not something most voting members are happy about, and there is a good chance now people are voting for it out of spite, this is the "Ar-go F yourself" theory. If this is correct, then Argo likely wins big on Oscar night. I believe this theory because how can a film win the SAG award over other nominated films who had more individual performances nominated? Argo had just one SAG individual nomination for Alan Arkin, Silver Linings Playbook had 4 (De Niro, Weaver, Cooper, Lawrence) and won 1. Les Mis had 2 (Hathaway, Jackman) and won 1. Lincoln had 3 (Lee Jones, Day Lewis, and Field) and won 2. So how could the overall cast be that much better if individual performances were that much worse (worse is a strong word, how about "less amazing")? This is why I think voters are now rallying behind Argo, a show of support for what they feel is the best film and a film they feel was snubbed for Best Director. 

So how will it all end? I still think Lincoln is in the thick of it, it was given the most overall nominations meaning it has great support across most categories, and the Academy is still much less progressive, and usually goes the route they indicate they are going early. Either way it does seem to be a two horse race now. The smart money is still the Academy going Lincoln, but if the DGA goes Argo tonight, then I think we'll have a new favorite in the club house. 

As for Director, the film that usually wins Best Picture wins Best Director. If Lincoln wins Picture, we can assume Spielberg takes home Director as well. But if Argo continues its run and wins Picture, does Spielberg still win Director? I think so. I feel Beasts and Amour are not real contenders in this category, as stated before, the nomination was their award. Life of Pi may be the most amazing directing achievement, but again overall support is muted. David O'Russell may be the biggest threat to Spielberg, but I still think the chances of that happening are slim. 

-Maximus

What the Nominations Should Have Been (Updated)

Now that we have predicted and reviewed the 2013 Oscar Nominations, its time to talk about what the nominees should have been. Post your own thoughts or disagreements in the comments section.

*Update 2/2-I finally saw Looper and loved it, it changed some of my categories. Also, I put the person I would like to have seen win in bold. 
*Update 2/8-Updated since I saw Flight.
*Update 2/9-I saw Beasts of the Southern Wild.
*Update 2/23-I saw Life of Pi, Skyfall, and Moonrise Kingdom.

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Emily Blunt, Looper
Charlize Theron, Snow White and the Huntsman
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Marion Cotillard, Dark Knight Rises

Only one actual nominee for me in Hathaway. I felt Sally Field was a lesson in overacting, and there was just not enough for me with Helen Hunt and Jacki Weaver.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Bryan Cranston, Argo
Frank Grillo, The Grey
Pierce Gagnon, Looper

Such a tough category. Actual nominees Tommy Lee Jones and Robert De Niro were very hard to leave out. In addition Logan Marshall Green in Prometheus, Michael Caine in Dark Knight Rises, and any of the other men in Lincoln and Argo were deserving. The update knocked out Alan Arkin in favor of the young Gagnon from Looper. In addition, Jeff Daniels was also worthy in Looper. Jason Clarke from Zero Dark Thirty was also worthy of consideration. Javier Bardem was fantastic in Skyfall, but needed more screen time.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo
Lincoln
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Skyfall

I love these five screenplays. Silver Linings Playbook had no focus, and lets be honest, when your script includes the line "if we win this game we get into the division" it should never win anything, as even my mother knows that doesn't make any sense in the NFL.

Best Original Screenplay

Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Prometheus
Looper
The Grey

Tough call between Django and Looper here. Both amazingly well written, both insanely original. Flip a coin.

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Noomi Rapace, Prometheus
Anne Hathaway, Dark Knight Rises
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Gets thing after Lawrence and Chastain. I didn't quite agree with some of the fringe Oscar nominees. Can the girl from Brave be nominated?

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Looper
Denzel Washington, Flight

Not much to say here other than these were my five favorite male lead performances. I had Ben Affleck here until I saw Flight and felt Denzel showed amazing restraint in what could have been an over acted performance.

Best Director

Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Tom Hooper and Rian Johnson would also be deserving, but don't make the cut. I also felt Sam Mendes did a fantastic job with Skyfall.

Best Picture

Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
The Dark Knight Rises
Prometheus
Looper
Flight
Life of Pi

The full ten nominees for me. I felt Silver Linings Playbook was elevated only by its actors, it felt to me like a film with no script or direction, Amour was another film that appears to have been an exercise in acting only. Looper became one of my favorite films of the year once I saw it, however Argo is still the film that I think is most deserving of the year's top honor. Skyfall narrowly missed.

*Editors note: Check back for updates as more films are seen.

-Maximus

Oscar Nomination Reaction

Well, I did about as well as most in the predictions, which is to say pretty solid outside of the directing category. This year was quite a shock with the nominations, and the Academy proved once again that whether they have five nominees or ten, they prefer art house to studio. Lets break down the nominees.

Best Picture (* means I correctly predicted it)

Silver Linings Playbook*, Django Unchained*, Les Miserables*, Life of Pi*, Zero Dark Thirty*, Argo*, Lincoln*, Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild.

7 correct, I predicted there would be 8 nominees when 9 got nominated. I thought the Master would get in and Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour would be left out. Not huge surprises here though, The Master was a blind guess for me as I knew more would get in, I just predicted The Master would have more support.

Best Director

Steven Spielberg: Lincoln*, Ang Lee: Life of Pi, Michael Haneke: Amour, Benh Zeitlin: Beasts of the Southern Wild, David O'Russell: Silver Linings Playbook.

This is where it went off the rails. 1 of 5, and I should have nailed Life of Pi as its quite the directing achievement, but I thought 4 were locks and the 5th would be Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. However they snubbed Hooper, and Tarantino for Django, and Bigelow for ZDT, and Affleck for Argo (winner of the directing award at the Golden Globes). So basically 4 people got snubbed for me. Replacing them were two directors from films not considered great directing achievements (Haneke and O'Russell) and one who I never thought would have the support (Zeitlin).

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper: Silver Linings Playbook*, Denzel Washington: Flight*, Daniel Day-Lewis: Lincoln*, Hugh Jackman: Les Miserables*, Joaquin Phoenix: The Master.

4 out of 5 isn't bad, and Phoenix was my 6th option. However my thought was if Phoenix got in, Cooper wouldn't. However it was John Hawkes who got left out for Phoenix. I miscalculated how much wide spread support there would be for Silver Linings.

Best Actress

Quvenzhane Wallis: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Naomi Watts: The Impossible*, Emanuelle Riva: Amour*, Jennifer Lawrence: Silver Linings Playbook*, Jessica Chastain: Zero Dark Thirty*.

4 out of 5 again. I predicted Marion Cotillard over Wallis. Wallis was my 6th option however, it was more of a guessing game at that point.

Best Supporting Actor

Phillip Seymour Hoffman: The Master*, Robert DeNiro: Silver Linings Playbook*, Christoph Waltz: Django Unchained, Tommy Lee Jones: Lincoln*, Alan Arkin: Argo*.

4 of 5...again, I am sensing a trend here. For the 5th spot I thought Dicaprio over Waltz in Django, but Waltz has more support than I expected, especially after the Oscar nomination and Golden Globe win.

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway: Les Miserables*, Jackie Weaver: Silver Linings Playbook, Sally Field: Lincoln*, Amy Adams: The Master*, Helen Hunt: The Sessions*.

4 of 5 again. I didn't even mention Jackie Weaver, again I underestimated Playbook and Harvey Weinstein. I thought Judy Dench would get Skyfall a major nomination.

So overall not too bad, 4 of 5 in all four acting categories. 7 of 9 in Best Picture. Just could have used some help on that Best Director category.

-Maximus

Oscar Nomination Predictions

After a long hiatus, we are back just in time for the 2013 Oscars. If you read my way too early Oscar predictions from February of last year, you'll see I nailed some unexpected films (Life of Pi in Best Picture), failed miserably at some (too much love for the Hobbit and Cloud Atlas), and predicted some too early including name and release date changes for The Wettest County and Cogan's Trade (now Lawless and Killing Them Softly) and delays for some big contenders (The Great Gatsby, Gangster Squad, and World War Z). But here we go with what should be a much more accurate prediction of the major races for the 2013 Oscars.

Best Picture: So much harder to predict now that we don't know how man films will be nominated, but here are my guesses.

Sure Things:

Zero Dark Thirty: The front runner, should be in the race until the end.
Lincoln: The type of movie the Oscars like, will be fighting with ZDT until the telecast.
Argo: Came out very early, and some of its momentum has been taken by ZDT, but still a film most love.
Les Miserables: Should fill the musical slot nicely, it peaked at the right time but has been fading sooner than expected.
Django Unchained: Peaked at the right time, and has sustained momentum. The most unique film on this list.

Safe Bets:

Silver Linings Playbook: Was a solid prediction in early fall, but has turned some people off lately. A sure bet in many acting categories.
Life of Pi: Visually stunning, epic, and from an Academy favorite director, likely is the last quasi-guarantee for a best picture nomination.

Maybe:

The Master: The favorite prior to Oscar season starting, but it has faded almost completely off the map.
Moonrise Kingdom: Not everyone is a fan of Wes Anderson, not sure it will get the needed number of votes, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it here if the Academy nominates 9 or 10.
Skyfall: The possible blockbuster nomination of why the BP category was increased to ten (then changed from 5 to 10 depending on votes). Has more momentum then Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit.

Long Shots:

The Hobbit Part 1: Most liked it, but considered just slightly above average, hasn't been talked about much at all lately.
Beasts of the Southern Wild: A critics pick, could sneak in, but it would be quite the surprise.
The Dark Knight Rises: The category was created for its preceding film, but support has been non existent.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: Quietly an awards film released in the wrong time of year.

Official Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook all make it. One more will get in, and I think it ends up being The Master.

Best Director:

Sure Things:

Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty: Won here not too long ago, and most seem to believe this film is better than the one she won for.
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln: Was there any doubt?
Ben Affleck, Argo: Probably will be his only solo nomination in this film, similar to the many times Clint Eastwood was nominated for his directing, but never appreciated for his acting in the same films.
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained: The Academy loves him. Django is peaking at the perfect time.

Next spot will go to one of these three:

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables: Won here two years ago (Fincher still got robbed) but most haven't considered Les Miserables to be the directing achievement that The King's Speech was.
Ang Li, Life of Pi: Probably the most director friendly film on this list, but is the competition too tough?
David O'Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: Needs the film to gain some momentum if he is going to overcome Hooper and Li.

Official Prediction: Hooper edges out Li for the 5th spot with Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, and Tarantino.

Best Actor:

Sure Things:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln: Nomination guaranteed, and close to guaranteeing the win.
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables: Seems to be getting a lot of credit despite everyone celebrating Anne Hathaway.

Safe Bets:
Denzel Washington, Flight: The film won't get much love, but his work is recognized enough to get credit here.
John Hawkes, The Sessions: Still won't be shocked if he gets left out, but he seems to be considered a lock.

Next spot will go to one of these two:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook: Most consider him to be a lock, I am skeptical, seems like the movie is falling fast with the exception of Jennifer Lawrence.
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master: The Favorite when The Master was released, but his anti Academy tirade hurt him, as well as the fading respect for the movie.

Long Shots:

Ben Affleck, Argo: Could he sneak in?
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock: Respected actor finally doing something worth watching again, but the film seems to be all but forgotten.
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained: Should absolutely be in, but has gotten almost no support.

Official Prediction: Jackman, Day-Lewis, Washington, and Hawkes make the cut. Cooper sneaks in the 5th spot.

Best Actress:

Sure Things:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty: After her supporting nomination last year, she is in the drivers seat this year.
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook: Between these two for the prize.

Safe Bets:

Emannuelle Riva, Amour: I think she gets in as the movie will get a few nominations despite being Foreign Language.
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone: The type of role created for a Best Actress nomination.

Next spot will go to one of two:

Quizantine Wells, Beasts of the Southern Wild: Will be the youngest nominee ever, but I don't think this film has the same support as other younger nominees, would be better in the supporting category.
Naomi Watts, The Impossible: Not sure how she hasn't garnered more support at this point.

Long Shots:

Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea: Not the Samuel L Jackson movie. Likely not known enough to get a nomination.
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock: Seems like the movie is not garnering enough support.

Official Prediction: Chastain and Lawrence battle until the end, Riva, Cotillard, and Watts also get nominations.

Best Supporting Actor:

Sure Things:

Tommy Lee-Jones, Lincoln: Great actor giving a great performance after being gone for a while.
Phillip Seymour Hoffmann, The Master: The supporting categories may be all The Master has left.

Safe Bets:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained: I wanted to put him as a sure thing, but I have a bad feeling...
Alan Arkin, Argo: Only thing going against him could be splitting the vote for supporting actors in Argo.
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook: Same as Tommy Lee Jones but instead of being gone for a while, has been making terrible movies for a while.

Long Shots:

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained: May steal votes from DiCaprio, but seems like DiCaprio has it.

Official Prediction: Lee Jones, Seymour Hoffmann, Dicaprio, DeNiro, and Arkin make it in.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sure Things:

Amy Adams, The Master: See Hoffman, Phillip Seymour.
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables: Seems to be the favorite in a strong year from Catwoman to Fantine.
Sally Field, Lincoln: Will get nominated based off prestige and the film, but not sure this is really deserved.

Safe Bets:

Helen Hunt, The Sessions: Should get the nomination along with John Hawkes.

Nomination will go to one of the next two:

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy: This movie was was wildly ridiculed, as was her performance, but SAG and the Golden Globes have set her up to get the 5th spot.
Judi Dench, Skyfall: Seems like a long shot, but I think this could be how the Academy recognizes Skyfall.

Official Prediction: Adams, Hathaway, Field, and Hunt get in. Dench edges out Kidman for the 5th spot.


I will make my official winner predictions closer to the ceremony, but for fun, I will say Zero Dark Thirty takes Picture, Director, and Actress. Lincoln takes Actor and Supporting Actor, and Les Miserables takes supporting actress.