Oscar Nomination Predictions

After a long hiatus, we are back just in time for the 2013 Oscars. If you read my way too early Oscar predictions from February of last year, you'll see I nailed some unexpected films (Life of Pi in Best Picture), failed miserably at some (too much love for the Hobbit and Cloud Atlas), and predicted some too early including name and release date changes for The Wettest County and Cogan's Trade (now Lawless and Killing Them Softly) and delays for some big contenders (The Great Gatsby, Gangster Squad, and World War Z). But here we go with what should be a much more accurate prediction of the major races for the 2013 Oscars.

Best Picture: So much harder to predict now that we don't know how man films will be nominated, but here are my guesses.

Sure Things:

Zero Dark Thirty: The front runner, should be in the race until the end.
Lincoln: The type of movie the Oscars like, will be fighting with ZDT until the telecast.
Argo: Came out very early, and some of its momentum has been taken by ZDT, but still a film most love.
Les Miserables: Should fill the musical slot nicely, it peaked at the right time but has been fading sooner than expected.
Django Unchained: Peaked at the right time, and has sustained momentum. The most unique film on this list.

Safe Bets:

Silver Linings Playbook: Was a solid prediction in early fall, but has turned some people off lately. A sure bet in many acting categories.
Life of Pi: Visually stunning, epic, and from an Academy favorite director, likely is the last quasi-guarantee for a best picture nomination.

Maybe:

The Master: The favorite prior to Oscar season starting, but it has faded almost completely off the map.
Moonrise Kingdom: Not everyone is a fan of Wes Anderson, not sure it will get the needed number of votes, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it here if the Academy nominates 9 or 10.
Skyfall: The possible blockbuster nomination of why the BP category was increased to ten (then changed from 5 to 10 depending on votes). Has more momentum then Dark Knight Rises or The Hobbit.

Long Shots:

The Hobbit Part 1: Most liked it, but considered just slightly above average, hasn't been talked about much at all lately.
Beasts of the Southern Wild: A critics pick, could sneak in, but it would be quite the surprise.
The Dark Knight Rises: The category was created for its preceding film, but support has been non existent.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel: Quietly an awards film released in the wrong time of year.

Official Prediction: Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln, Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook all make it. One more will get in, and I think it ends up being The Master.

Best Director:

Sure Things:

Katheryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty: Won here not too long ago, and most seem to believe this film is better than the one she won for.
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln: Was there any doubt?
Ben Affleck, Argo: Probably will be his only solo nomination in this film, similar to the many times Clint Eastwood was nominated for his directing, but never appreciated for his acting in the same films.
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained: The Academy loves him. Django is peaking at the perfect time.

Next spot will go to one of these three:

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables: Won here two years ago (Fincher still got robbed) but most haven't considered Les Miserables to be the directing achievement that The King's Speech was.
Ang Li, Life of Pi: Probably the most director friendly film on this list, but is the competition too tough?
David O'Russell, Silver Linings Playbook: Needs the film to gain some momentum if he is going to overcome Hooper and Li.

Official Prediction: Hooper edges out Li for the 5th spot with Bigelow, Affleck, Spielberg, and Tarantino.

Best Actor:

Sure Things:

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln: Nomination guaranteed, and close to guaranteeing the win.
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables: Seems to be getting a lot of credit despite everyone celebrating Anne Hathaway.

Safe Bets:
Denzel Washington, Flight: The film won't get much love, but his work is recognized enough to get credit here.
John Hawkes, The Sessions: Still won't be shocked if he gets left out, but he seems to be considered a lock.

Next spot will go to one of these two:

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook: Most consider him to be a lock, I am skeptical, seems like the movie is falling fast with the exception of Jennifer Lawrence.
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master: The Favorite when The Master was released, but his anti Academy tirade hurt him, as well as the fading respect for the movie.

Long Shots:

Ben Affleck, Argo: Could he sneak in?
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock: Respected actor finally doing something worth watching again, but the film seems to be all but forgotten.
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained: Should absolutely be in, but has gotten almost no support.

Official Prediction: Jackman, Day-Lewis, Washington, and Hawkes make the cut. Cooper sneaks in the 5th spot.

Best Actress:

Sure Things:

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty: After her supporting nomination last year, she is in the drivers seat this year.
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook: Between these two for the prize.

Safe Bets:

Emannuelle Riva, Amour: I think she gets in as the movie will get a few nominations despite being Foreign Language.
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone: The type of role created for a Best Actress nomination.

Next spot will go to one of two:

Quizantine Wells, Beasts of the Southern Wild: Will be the youngest nominee ever, but I don't think this film has the same support as other younger nominees, would be better in the supporting category.
Naomi Watts, The Impossible: Not sure how she hasn't garnered more support at this point.

Long Shots:

Rachel Weisz, Deep Blue Sea: Not the Samuel L Jackson movie. Likely not known enough to get a nomination.
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock: Seems like the movie is not garnering enough support.

Official Prediction: Chastain and Lawrence battle until the end, Riva, Cotillard, and Watts also get nominations.

Best Supporting Actor:

Sure Things:

Tommy Lee-Jones, Lincoln: Great actor giving a great performance after being gone for a while.
Phillip Seymour Hoffmann, The Master: The supporting categories may be all The Master has left.

Safe Bets:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained: I wanted to put him as a sure thing, but I have a bad feeling...
Alan Arkin, Argo: Only thing going against him could be splitting the vote for supporting actors in Argo.
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook: Same as Tommy Lee Jones but instead of being gone for a while, has been making terrible movies for a while.

Long Shots:

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained: May steal votes from DiCaprio, but seems like DiCaprio has it.

Official Prediction: Lee Jones, Seymour Hoffmann, Dicaprio, DeNiro, and Arkin make it in.

Best Supporting Actress:

Sure Things:

Amy Adams, The Master: See Hoffman, Phillip Seymour.
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables: Seems to be the favorite in a strong year from Catwoman to Fantine.
Sally Field, Lincoln: Will get nominated based off prestige and the film, but not sure this is really deserved.

Safe Bets:

Helen Hunt, The Sessions: Should get the nomination along with John Hawkes.

Nomination will go to one of the next two:

Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy: This movie was was wildly ridiculed, as was her performance, but SAG and the Golden Globes have set her up to get the 5th spot.
Judi Dench, Skyfall: Seems like a long shot, but I think this could be how the Academy recognizes Skyfall.

Official Prediction: Adams, Hathaway, Field, and Hunt get in. Dench edges out Kidman for the 5th spot.


I will make my official winner predictions closer to the ceremony, but for fun, I will say Zero Dark Thirty takes Picture, Director, and Actress. Lincoln takes Actor and Supporting Actor, and Les Miserables takes supporting actress.