Oscar Update

My earlier post on the Oscars was almost two months ago now, and a lot has changed. We have seen the SAG nominations, the Golden Globe nominations, and some of the critics awards come through, and that changes the race. I decided the easiest way for me to keep updating the status of the films as things will change a lot between now and the ceremony, would be to do Oscar power rankings, where I rank the big awards and who is in the best position as of today. I will do ten films since that is the maximum number of nominees for picture, and 5 in the other categories. Here we go..

Best Picture:
1. The Artist-Still the favorite, but lots of backlash out there, and the favorite in November and December is almost never the winner in February.
2. The Descendants- Fading a bit from its front runner status of two months ago.
3. War Horse- The climber, however early reviews seem to indicate a love it or hate it mentality, never good.
4. Hugo-Might have been released too early, and maybe now that people are actually seeing it, they are realizing it is boring.
5. The Help- Has stood the test of time, doesn't seem to have a shot to win, but a nomination is a sure thing.
6. Midnight in Paris- I have heard zero about whether or not this is actually good or if people just like it because they think Woody Allen knows what he is doing.
7. Tree of Life- Hasn't stood the test of time as well as The Help, but still hanging around.
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close- Coming out so late, its not much of a factor.....yet.
9. Moneyball- More likely to make waves in acting and screenwriting, but still has an outside shot.
10. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo- Many think Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and/or The Ides of March are more likely here, but I think late support for GwtDT will come on late. J. Edgar falls off the list of ten.

Best Actor:
1. George Clooney/The Descendants- Still the favorite, lots of competition though.
2. Brad Pitt/Moneyball- Many think is more deserving of a BSA nomination for Tree of Life, but that should only help him here.
3. Jean Dujardin/The Artist- I think he will get nominated, but the fact his movie is silent will ultimately cost him.
4. Michael Fassbender/Shame- The one I really think will come on late.
5. Leonardo DiCaprio/J. Edgar- Despite a great performance, feels like people just keep him in the race because he is so good, not because they loved this film specifically.

Best Actress:
1. Viola Davis/The Help- To unseat Streep, it takes a great performance.
2. Meryl Streep/Iron Lady- Hurts that you literally CANNOT find this movie anywhere.
3. Glenn Close/Albert Nobbs- Same as Streep, not sure where these films come from.
4. Tilda Swinton/We Need to Talk about Kevin- Late bloomer, but coming on very strong.
5. Michelle Williams/My Week with Marilyn- Fading a bit, might stick as many feel she should have won last year.
*-This category is going to get tough. While most others have a definitive 5 favorites, this has 7. Rooney Mara in GwtDT and Charlize Theron in Young Adult are going to fight hard to get in.

Best Supporting Actor:
1. Christopher Plummer/Beginners- Have this in my queue, will give it my thoughts soon.
2. Kenneth Branaugh/My Week with Marilyn- Some people feel he is the favorite, others leave him out entirely. Tough call.
3. Albert Brooks/Drive- Ignored at the Golden Globes in favor of Viggo, but was the favorite up until then.
4. Nick Nolte/Warrior- Performance was too close to home to not recognize for those who like Nolte.
5. Armie Hammer/J. Edgar- Many feel he will be left off, but since he is my personal favorite here,  I still feel he has a chance.

Best Supporting Actress:
1. Octavia Spencer/The Help- The better Davis does, the better Spencer will do.
2. Melissa McCarthy/Bridesmaids- Yes, seriously.
3. Berenice Bejo/The Artist- See Dujardin, Jean.
4. Jessica Chastain/The Help- Has had a great year, and many feel could have been nominated for this, The Tree of Life, or Take Shelter.
5. Shailene Woodley/The Descendants- Toss up between her and the supporting actress from Albert Nobbs, but I believe Close will be the only nominee from that film.

Best Director:
1. Michael Hazanavicious/The Artist- For me I think this its best chance at a major award.
2. Martin Scorsese/Hugo- Scorsese always has a shot.
3. Steven Spielberg/War Horse- Spielberg always has a shot.
4. Alexander Payne/The Descendants- Has a good track record with the Academy, but was the film that much of an achievement in direction?
5. Terrence Malick/Tree of Life- I think he'll sneak in and cost the overrated Woody Allen a nomination....cross off think....add in hope.

So that is where we stand in my humble opinion. However, as we know, things will change.

-Maximus