This is the second annual massive Oscar Preview! Where we break down every category and tell you what should win, what will win, what could win, and what could be a dark horse. Remember while I do some research, many of these are just my opinion, if you lose your Oscar pool based off my predictions....well feel free to berate me in the comments. Lets get to it!
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win: Margin Call
Will Win: Midnight in Paris
Could Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: A Separation
-One of the only categories where The Artist is not the favorite, but unfortunately, people seem to think Midnight in Paris was not completely terrible. My favorite was the witty, terrific screenplay for Margin Call.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win: Moneyball
Will Win: The Descendants
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: Moneyball
-Moneyball was this years Social Network, but doesn't quite have the support. Hugo is the favorite right now as it credits a single writer, which the Academy traditionally loves, but I think this one will go to The Descendants.
Best Visual Effects
Should Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Could Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Dark Horse: Transformers Dark of the Moon
-HP 7.2 should be a best picture nominee, and I think it may sneak in here as some members may see it as a consolation prize, but with the MoCap of RotPotA being all the rage, I see it deservedly winning.
Sound Mixing
Should Win: Hugo
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: War Horse
Dark Horse: Moneyball
-Sound Mixing is the mixing of dialogue, background effects, and primary sound effects. That is why this is Hugo's to lose.
Sound Editing
Should Win: Transformers Dark of the Moon
Will Win: Transformers Dark of the Moon
Could Win: War Horse
Dark Horse: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-The actual sound category, the Transformers franchise has used sound very well. War Horse may still get credit for the three and a half minutes of actual war in the film.
Short Film Live Action
Will Win: The Shore
Could Win: Raju
Dark Horse: Time Freak
-I tend to assume the Academy will go dark material here (Raju), but last year gave it to the funny, touching God of Love, Time Freak could be this years light, funny winner. I however go with The Shore as it starred real actors, not sure that gives it a huge edge, but I think the Academy will like it.
Short Film Animated
Will Win: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Could Win: La Luna
Dark Horse: A Morning Stroll
-Flying Books is Pixar, so I pick that, although the more technically impressive were La Luna and Wild Life, but the most French was Dimanche/Sunday. A Morning Stroll though is simple and engaging.
Music (Original Song)
Should Win: The Muppets
Will Win: The Muppets
Could Win: Rio
Dark Horse: They just forget the category exists this year.
-Only two nominees this year. The Muppets were more notable.
Music (Original Score)
Should Win: The Artist
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: War Horse
-Two John Williams scores in lesser movies will likely cancel each other out. No Hans Zimmer this year. Incumbent Trent Reznor was ignored for the terrific GwtDT score. So I'll say the film that was all score, The Artist, takes it home.
Makeup
Should Win: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Will Win: HP 7.2
Could Win: The Iron Lady
Dark Horse: Albert Nobbs
-A very close race, could go either way. But I'll say this goes to sci fi as it traditionally does. Albert Nobbs is the Dark Horse by default as its only a 3 nominee category, it will be one of the other two films.
Foreign Language Film
Should Win: A Separation
Will Win: A Separation
Could Win: In Darkness
Dark Horse: Bullhead
-A Separation got the screenplay nod, which makes it the favorite. But this train of thought has led me astray in other years. Out of 11 Foreign Language nominees nominated for a screenplay award, only 5 have actually won the Foreign Language film award. In Darkness received wide praise in the States.
Film Editing
Should Win: The Artist
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: Moneyball
-Technical category and Hugo is the technical darling of this years awards based off the number of nominations. But Editing many times goes to the eventual Best Picture winner. Moneyball had great editing between baseball/dialogue, but is a long shot.
Documentary Short
Should Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Will Win: The Barber of Birningham
Could Win: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
Dark Horse: Saving Face
-Material usually wins out here, so civil rights movement vs devastating natural disaster vs woman whose husband threw acid on her face vs soldier who questions his motives in Iraq?
Documentary Feature
Should Win: Undefeated
Will Win: Paradise Lost 3
Could Win: Undefeated
Dark Horse: Pina
-Undefeated and Pina were the only ones with a theatrical release, so that helps them. But Paradise Lost 3 helped clear 3 men who has been in prison for a long time....and Johnny Depp supports it.
Costume Design:
Should Win: Jane Eyre
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Artist
Dark Horse(s): Anonymous
-Wide open as you can tell. Anonymous was the early favorite but didn't even get nominated by the Designers guild. W.E. won the guild award over Hugo, The Artist, and Jane Eyre... But I think Hugo picks up another win. However don't sleep on Jane Eyre, because the CD award sometimes goes in an unsuspecting way, and Jane Eyre should win this award.
Art Direction
Should Win: Hugo
Will Win: Hugo
Could Win: The Artist
Dark Horse: War Horse
-The Paris train station should win this one. The Artist still may pull it out in blind sweep fashion, but I say Hugo.
Directing
Should Win: The Artist
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: The Tree of Life
-Should easily be The Artist's award. But directors love The Tree of Life. But once again, the smart money is on The Artist.
Cinematography
Should Win: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Will Win: The Tree of Life
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse(s): The Artist
-Once again you always have to watch out for the "big" films of the year to blindly sweep award they don't deserve, but The Tree of Life has swept every award in this category since the beginning, so likely it will win here.
Animated Feature Film
Should Win: Rango
Will Win: Rango
Could Win: Chico & Rita
Dark Horse: A Cat in Paris
-With Tintin getting shut out here, the award goes to Rango. The only chance it doesn't is if the Academy tries to impress people and awards the adult animated films A Cat in Paris or Chico & Rita.
Actress Supporting
Should Win: Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Will Win: Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: No
-This is Spencer's to win. It would be a huge upset if anyone else won.
Actor Supporting
Should Win: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Will Win: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Could Win: No
Dark Horse: Max Von Sydow (ELIC)....barely
-Not much of a race either, would be a huge upset as well.
Actress Lead
Should Win: Viola Davis (The Help)
Will Win: Viola Davis (The Help)
Could Win: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Dark Horse: No, either Streep or Davis.
-Neck and neck, to say Streep is the dark horse is underrating her chances. This could go either way, I say it goes Davis'.
Actor Lead
Should Win: George Clooney (The Descendants)
Will Win: George Clooney (The Descendants)
Could Win: Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Dark Horse: Demian Bichir has a lot of industry support, but this is Clooney or Dujardin's.
-Again, neck and neck. Could honestly go either way. Dujardin is the favorite right now, but I say Clooney takes it.
Best Picture
Should Win: Harry Potter....wait.. The Help
Will Win: The Artist
Could Win: Hugo
Dark Horse: If there is one, Hugo
-Not much drama here. Its The Artist vs the field. And The Artist is the prohibitive favorite.
So what do we have? A lot of boring categories. 4 of the 6 biggest of the year (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress) are all locks. Hopefully Actor and Actress are enough to keep us interested...well that and Billy Crystal. As a final count, I have The Artist with 4 awards, Hugo with 3, and The Help with 2.
Check back again right before showtime as there may be some corrections made in the short categories.
-Maximus
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