The hardest thing about predicting the Best Picture nominees this year may not be what is nominated, but instead how many films are nominated. With the voting rules, anywhere between 5 and 10 films can be nominated for Best Picture. Here are my final predictions in the 6 major categories, ranked by my confidence in their getting a nomination.
Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Help
3. Hugo
4. The Descendants
5. Midnight in Paris
6. War Horse
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7. The Tree of Life
8. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
9. Moneyball
10. Bridesmaids
The dotted line above is where I think the cutoff will happen. I am still torn if I think War Horse will make 6 nominees or not as it has been losing steam, but my gut says it will have gotten enough votes early on. The other 4 films are my picks for what I think would be nominated if there were still a locked in 10 nominees.
Best Director
1. Michael Hazanavicius; The Artist
2. Martin Scorsese; Hugo
3. Alexander Payne; The Descendants
4. Woody Allen; Midnight in Paris
5. David Fincher; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This is very difficult to predict, as most of the time a film without a Picture nomination won't get a director nomination. But with the DGA recognizing Fincher and many voters feeling Fincher should have won last year, I think he gets in. I would not be shocked at all though if Steven Spielberg, Terrence Malick, or Tate Taylor get that 5 spot.
Best Actor
1. George Clooney; The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin; The Artist
3. Brad Pitt; Moneyball
4. Michael Fassbender; Shame
5. Leonardo DiCaprio; J. Edgar
While this is Clooney's award to lose, the nominations are still in flux. Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt are locks for a nomination. From there it gets dicey though. Demian Blair for A Better Life and/or Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy could take over for Fassbender or DiCaprio. Ryan Gosling for Drive and Michael Shannon for Take Shelter still also have outside chances of sneaking in.
Best Actress
1. Viola Davis; The Help
2. Meryl Streep; The Iron Lady
3. Michelle Williams; My Week with Marilyn
4. Tilda Swinton; We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Rooney Mara; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
This is me going out on a limb, the first 3 are locks like in the Best Actor race, but after that it gets sketchy. Most consider Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs to be a lock, but the movie is hard to find and the performance is somewhat bland. I think Mara deservedly gets recognized for GwtDT, the piercings, the torment, the nudity, the character, all a tribute to how good she was in the role. Charlize Theron in Young Adult would be 7, but looks to be a very long shot now.
Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer; Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh; My Week with Marilyn
3. Albert Brooks; Drive
4. Jonah Hill; Moneyball
5. Armie Hammer; J. Edgar
Once again, me going out on a limb. Armie Hammer has been virtually ignored as J. Edgar has fallen off the map, and Max Von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Nick Nolte in Warrior, Ben Kingsley in Hugo, Patton Oswalt in Young Adult, and/or Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method could all take any of the 2-6 spots.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer; The Help
2. Berenice Bejo; The Artist
3. Jessica Chastain; The Help
4. Melissa McCarthy; Bridesmaids
5. Shailene Woodley; The Descendents
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs is a favorite, but my thoughts above on Glenn Close also apply here. I don't feel enough Oscar voters are going to see the movie, and I think Woodley benefits here.
So 31 predictions here, and while I am pretty confident in some of my picks, its a little bit tougher in others. No doubt there will be some surprises. Here are some long shot surprises we might see (most probably just in my dreams though):
1. No War Horse anywhere.
2. Alan Rickman getting a nomination as Severus Snape in the Best Supporting Actor race.
3. Berenice Bejo in the Best Actress race, not Supporting.
4. Bridesmaids love as the Academy tries to look hip and cool.
5. A new movie become the favorite in the coming weeks. It was this time last year that The Social Network was a BP and BD lock......
-Maximus
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