Welcome back! It appears this blog is turning into more of an annual Oscar blog than a year round movie blog, and for that I apologize, however most likely no one is reading this anyway, but its nice to have a place to put these Oscar posts so I can come back later and check my work! Lots of excuses as to why we stopped posting, Diomedes moved into Chicago and has no internet, which means he uses his Iphone for everyone, and its tough to type posts on an Iphone. As for me, I use my Ipad for everything now, and you can't really type a long post on an Ipad. So basically technology has made us lazy. Anyway, its time for our annual Oscar Nomination predictions. The Oscar nominations are announced this Thursday, and there will be plenty of breakdown here.
As for my way too far in advance 2014 Oscar predictions, we did pretty well. Films like Gravity and 12 Years a Slave were great calls by me, just as it appears The Butler and August: Osage County were not. In addition many of the films I thought would be contenders (The Monuments Men, Foxcatcher) were pushed into 2014.
On to what we think will be nominated this year.
Best Supporting Actress
You'll see a lot of the same theme this year, which is that all the main nominations will come from the same 15 movies. While the nominations will vary in those 15, it is a small pool to choose from this year. The Best Supporting Actress race is no different, as all the nominees films are nominated in other main categories. The locks are June Squibb for Nebraska, Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave, and Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle. From there it gets tricky. Oprah Winfrey and Julia Roberts are the powerhouse superstars that the Academy likes to honor, but some smaller movies and performances are still fighting to get in, like Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine and Margot Robbie for The Wolf of Wall Street. Despite Oprah not getting the SAG nomination, I do believe she sneaks in here.
Final Prediction:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Best Supporting Actor
A tougher category as multiple spots are still up for grabs. The Golden Globes sealed Jared Leto as a lock for his performance in Dallas Buyer's Club. In addition Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips is in. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave has been considered by most to be a lock for some time, but his name is not being mentioned much. For the final two spots, the battle is between Daniel Bruhl for Rush, Bradley Cooper for American Hustle, James Gandolfini for Enough Said, Will Forte for Nebraska, and Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street. Why no one is talking about Jeremy Renner in American Hustle is beyond me. Ultimately I think Gandolfini, Forte, and Hill have too little momentum. Tom Hanks will get all his love for his lead performance in Captain Phillips and not enough for his supporting turn in Saving Mr Banks, and James Franco is still a very odd choice for Spring Breakers, despite people trying to push him into the race.
Final Prediction:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Best Actress
The easiest category (yet the one with the fiercest final battle) since 4 nominees are locks already. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock for Gravity, Judi Dench for Philomena, and Emma Thompson for Saving Mr Banks are all in. The question now is Meryl Streep for August: Osage County or Amy Adams for American Hustle? If nominations were due next week, I think Adams is a lock, but Streep was a favorite a few weeks back when many sent in their ballots. Still, I am calling for the upset and saying Adams gets in.
Final Prediction:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr Banks
Best Actor
The hardest category for me. Chitwetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey are locks for 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyer's Club, respectively. Tom Hanks is a near lock for Captain Phillips. After that it gets murky. Bruce Dern has a very good chance of securing the 4th spot for Nebraska. So for the 5th spot, Robert Redford for All is Lost, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street, or Christian Bale for American Hustle? Joaquin Phoenix, Oscar Isaac, and Michael B. Jordan are still slightly in play here as well, however any getting a nomination would be a true upset. I think ultimately voters will go with the showiest performance and give the 5th spot to Leonardo DiCaprio, and personally I can't understand why they don't just give him the Oscar.
Final Prediction:
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Chiwetal Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Best Director
Always the hardest category because the directors branch tends to get tricky with their nominations. Last years nominations for Beasts of the Southern Wild and snubs for Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper proved that. So while I am hesitant to say there are locks, the closest we have are Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity, and David O'Russell for American Hustle. For the last two spots, Martin Scorsese appears to be the favorite to get one of them, and it falls between Alexander Payne and Paul Greengrass for the final nomination. Spike Jonze is well respected but Her is not looked at as a strong directing achievement (however he may get an Oscar for the screenplay) and somehow the Coen's film Inside Llewyn Davis is being overlooked. The real wild card to me here is Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station. I don't think the film has enough support to get a Best Picture nomination, but if the Director's branch wanted their shocker, he would be it, so keep your eyes on that. As for my final prediction, I am saying Payne is the more obscure choice than Greengrass, which means he has the better shot.
Final Prediction:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
David O'Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Best Picture
Ah, the big one. It has been hard to predict these last few years since the number of nominees can vary. It has been 9 each of the last two years, but this year I think love is spread over about 15 films so there is a good chance 10 get in. First the possibilities, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle are locks. The way the voting system works, you are rewarded for a decent number of voters loving your film, and people who like The Wolf of Wall Street, love it. Captain Phillips has been a consistent threat as well. Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Her all are still hanging in as well. Dallas Buyer's Club, Philomena, and Blue Jasmine have been gaining steam, while August: Osage County, The Butler, and Saving Mr Banks have been losing it. The other film to consider is the aforementioned Fruitvale Station, which still has its champions within the Academy. Ultimately I think the first 6 I mentioned are the closest to sure things, which means 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Wolf of Wall Street, and Nebraska are in. If we only had 5 like the old days, I think Wolf would be left out. So now between 0 and 4 spots for the final 9 films I mentioned. I think Dallas Buyer's Club and Philomena have a ton of momentum and get in. I think Her gets in as well as many people find it sweet and think its the best film of the year. I think August, The Butler, and Mr Banks are on the outside looking in, as is Fruitvale Station as not enough people are still talking about it. So for the final spot, Inside Llewyn Davis or Blue Jasmine? I am going to say that the Blue Jasmine love is too little too late and say Davis gets in.
Final Prediction (10):
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
Nebraska
Dallas Buyer's Club
Her
Philomena
Inside Llewyn Davis
So there it is, I am very like quite wrong on a lot of these, and also I lied to you at the beginning of this article as Rush, Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr Banks, Her, and The Butler I have getting only one of the main 6 nominations each. In case you consider Screenplay part of the main show, my predictions for Adapted are Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, and The Wolf of Wall Street. With Original going to American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Nebraska.
I'll be back after Thursday to breakdown the nominations, and back a few more times prior to the Oscar Ceremony to tell you what I think will win and what should win. And after the show we'll break down the winners and as usual, look far to forward to 2015. Thanks for reading.
-Maximus
